11. Discuss error embracing, acknowledging uncertainty. 12. How do time horizons and pay back periods effect decision making on a system?
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11. Discuss error embracing, acknowledging uncertainty.
12. How do time horizons and pay back periods effect decision making on a system?
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- Calculate: a. Expected value of perfect information b. Minimax regret value32 true or false A rational decision will never fail to provide the best and most successful solution to a problem.1. What is the most the real estate investor would be willing to pay for additional information? Use Minimum Expected Regret (Minimum EOL) 2. Use the alternative method to verify EVPI
- The system below have components A and B, which function correctly with a probability of 0.8 and 0.9. Explain under what scenarios the system will function correctly then calculate the relaiability of the system.1. A clothing store is opening a second location and wants to decide whether to open in San Francisco or New York. Opening a location in either city will involve different capital expenditures and demonstrate different rates of success. Below are the relevant data: DECISION PROBABILITY OF PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS FAILURE San Francisco 40% 60% New York 30% 70% PAYOFF (SUCCESS) 15,000,000 30,000,000 PAYOFF (FAILURE) 4,000,000 10,000,000 DECISION San Francisco New York The costs associated with opening each location are as follows: in San Francisco, the store will need to invest $2 million, while a New York location will require an investment of $5 million. The expected payoff amounts represent the potential revenue if the store succeeds, or the potential loss if the store fails. REQUIRED: a. Draw the decision tree for the above problem; b. Compute for the Expected Value for each decision; c. Compute for the net gain / loss of each decisionMr Robert is working as the head of the accounting department in HARDA Limited for a decade. HARDA Limited wants to move from the legacy system to a new accounting information system. For this purpose, Mr Robert contacted a system professional, Paul Walker. During the initial meeting, Paul reveals that our system analysis team will first examine the old system, such as reviewing key documents and observing the workers perform their tasks. This initial analysis will enable us to determine which aspects are working well and which should be preserved. Robert disagrees with his opinion. Robert indicates that we have been through these types of projects before, and what always ends up happening is that we do not get the new system we are promised. We get a modified version of the old system. Paul Walker is still strict with his opinion and says that I can guarantee you that this will not happen again. As a system analyst, I need a proper understanding of the old system. What is working…
- Defining the ideal or future state in the decision making process is typically the most challengoing part of the process. True or false?what logistocs strategies and decisions will you take to a smooth flow of its materials and products from the suppliers to the customers keeping that uncertainity in mindThe idea that managers make decisions with incomplete information is an example of which term below? Question 33 options: satisficing bounded rationality decision criteria Management by Objectives
- You are currently the owner a small Hotel on the coast of an island within the Caribbean. The hotel occupies 1 acre of land next to a fishing village and farming district. You have a staff of 10 people, the water, electricity, and waste management cost are high, and the hotel is barely breaking even. When the septic tank is full, and you are unable to pay to remove the waste it is released into the sea at night. The corals around the hotel have been dying quickly and tourists are complaining about the declining quality of the reefs. Currently, much of the food used at the hotel is imported and the tourists have limited interaction with locals within the surrounding community. The government has decided to give sustainable tourism development grants of up to USD $250,000.00 to small struggling Hotels who can demonstrate via a project concept proposal that their operation can offer significant social and environmental benefits to their surrounding communities. In addition, these Hotels…You are currently the owner a small Hotel on the coast of an island within the Caribbean. The hotel occupies 1 acre of land next to a fishing village and farming district. You have a staff of 10 people, the water, electricity, and waste management cost are high, and the hotel is barely breaking even. When the septic tank is full, and you are unable to pay to remove the waste it is released into the sea at night. The corals around the hotel have been dying quickly and tourists are complaining about the declining quality of the reefs. Currently, much of the food used at the hotel is imported and the tourists have limited interaction with locals within the surrounding community. The government has decided to give sustainable tourism development grants of up to USD $250,000.00 to small struggling Hotels who can demonstrate via a project concept proposal that their operation can offer significant social and environmental benefits to their surrounding communities. In addition, these Hotels…In his book 'Blink', Gladwell described examples of situations when System 1 snap intuitive judgements can be more accurate than System 2 decisions? Detail 2 examples of such judgements from his book. Should one always trust intuition more than we trust our rational thinking? Or should one trust system 2 more in most other life and work situations?