13. Compute seasonal relatives for this data using the SA method:
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C3-13
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- Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.The owner of a restaurant in Bloomington, Indiana, has recorded sales data for the past 19 years. He has also recorded data on potentially relevant variables. The data are listed in the file P13_17.xlsx. a. Estimate a simple regression equation involving annual sales (the dependent variable) and the size of the population residing within 10 miles of the restaurant (the explanatory variable). Interpret R-square for this regression. b. Add another explanatory variableannual advertising expendituresto the regression equation in part a. Estimate and interpret this expanded equation. How does the R-square value for this multiple regression equation compare to that of the simple regression equation estimated in part a? Explain any difference between the two R-square values. How can you use the adjusted R-squares for a comparison of the two equations? c. Add one more explanatory variable to the multiple regression equation estimated in part b. In particular, estimate and interpret the coefficients of a multiple regression equation that includes the previous years advertising expenditure. How does the inclusion of this third explanatory variable affect the R-square, compared to the corresponding values for the equation of part b? Explain any changes in this value. What does the adjusted R-square for the new equation tell you?
- The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?Develop Linear Regression Model. Forecast sales for 8, 14 and 17 years of education. Sales(1000s) Years of Education 24 10 18 9 20 11 22 6 26 13 23 16 21 183. Quarterly sales of a car dealer exhibit an almost constant mean over time, but sales fluctuate depending on the quarter of the year (exhibits seasonality). Quarter Q1 - Spring Q2 - Summer Q3 - Fall Q4 - Winter Mean Year 1 32 74 53 22 45.25 Year 2 30 71 63 15 44.75 Year 3 35 83 45 19 45.5 (a) Using three years' worth of quarterly data that is provided, develop a set of seasonal factors that could be used to forecast car sales (b) Forecast car sales in each of the four quarters (Q1-Q4) of the following year (Year 4), using these seasonal factors.
- From the following time series data of sale project the sales for the next three years. Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Sales (*000 units) 80 90 92 83 94 99 92Consider the following quarterly demand level for electricity (in 1000 megawatts) in Mankweng from 2018 to 2022: 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Jan – March 21 35 49 60 10 - Apr – June 42 54 55 64 05 July – Sept Oct – Dec 60 91 95 99 12 14 74 80 1. Find the least squares trend line for electricity demand using Exx=0 method. 2. Find the seasonal index for each quarter. 3. Find adjusted seasonal index. 4. Find the De-seasonalized values for Quarter 1, 2,3 and 4 for the year 2023.2. What is the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)? 3. Use the following set of data to calculate the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) for the following set of data. Month Actual (At) Forecast (Ft) Forecast Error Absolute (Deviation) Forecast Eror January February 45 45 42 50 March 34 45 April May 48 40 38 45 MAD =
- ces Obtain estimates of quarter relatives for these data using the centered moving average method. ( decimal points and standardize the final seasonal relatives so their total is four.) Quarter Demand Year 1 2 3 4 1 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 16 20 35 49 31 36 65 74 50 52 92 86 61 Quarter 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 Year MA 2 MA₂ Demand/MA2The San Diego Freeway 405 in Southern California showed the number of accidents during the past 6 months. Month Accidents Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 18 36 [Select] 28 48 39 55 Using the least squares regression method, the trend equation for forecast is Y = slope X + intercept What is the slope [Select] and the intercept [Select] What would be the forecasted July number of accidents [ Select] of this correlation, and coefficient of determination [ Select] and coefficient of correlationCalculate the mean and standard deviation for the following distribution Class 1 2 5 6-10 10-20 20-30 30-50 50-70 70-100 f 3 4 10 23 20 20 15 3 2
