Classify the following risks into variation, foreseen uncertainty, unforeseen uncertainty, and chaos:d. A cool summer causes a decrease in demand for air conditioners for that season
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Classify the following risks into variation, foreseen uncertainty, unforeseen uncertainty, and chaos:
d. A cool summer causes a decrease in demand for air conditioners for that season
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- At the beginning of each week, a machine is in one of four conditions: 1 = excellent; 2 = good; 3 = average; 4 = bad. The weekly revenue earned by a machine in state 1, 2, 3, or 4 is 100, 90, 50, or 10, respectively. After observing the condition of the machine at the beginning of the week, the company has the option, for a cost of 200, of instantaneously replacing the machine with an excellent machine. The quality of the machine deteriorates over time, as shown in the file P10 41.xlsx. Four maintenance policies are under consideration: Policy 1: Never replace a machine. Policy 2: Immediately replace a bad machine. Policy 3: Immediately replace a bad or average machine. Policy 4: Immediately replace a bad, average, or good machine. Simulate each of these policies for 50 weeks (using at least 250 iterations each) to determine the policy that maximizes expected weekly profit. Assume that the machine at the beginning of week 1 is excellent.Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. Ethical decisions that affect a buyers ethical perspective usually involve the organizational environment, cultural environment, personal environment, and industry environment. Analyze this scenario using these four variables.Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What does the Institute of Supply Management code of ethics say about financial conflicts of interest?
- Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What should Sharon do in this situation?Define each of the following terms:a. Acceptable risk of overreliance (ARO)Classify the following risks into variation, foreseen uncertainty, unforeseen uncertainty, and chaos:a. A hurricane on the U.S. East Coast floods a regional warehouse destroying a large amount of stock.b. A machine on the plant floor breaks down for an hour.c. Bad weather on the weekend causes an increase in demand for umbrellas.d. A cool summer causes a decrease in demand for air conditioners for that season.e. The excavation process for a new manufacturing plant in the U.S. Midwest uncovers an archaeological find of such significance that no building can take place on that site and a new site for the plant must be found.f. Competitors to the iPad launch smaller tablet computers before the iPad mini is ready to launch, thus negatively affecting demand for the iPad.g. The Second World War caused auto manufacturers to switch to producing military vehicles.h. A drug is found to have dangerous side effects following its launch.i. The transportation disruptions, including the grounding of…
- The Valley Wine Company purchases grapes from either of two nearby grape growers each season to produce a particular red wine. It purchases enough grapes to produce 3000 bottles of the wine. Each grower supplies a certain portion of poor quality grapes, resulting in a percentage of bottles being used as fillers for cheaper table wines according to the following probability distribution. Probability of Percent Defective Defective (%) Grower A Grower B 2 .15 .30 4 .20 .30 6 .25 .20 8 .30 .10 10 .10 .10 The two growers charge a different prices for their grapes and because of differences in taste, the company charges different prices for their wine depending on which grapes they use. The annual profit from the wine produced from each grower's grapes for each percentage defective is as follows. PROFIT DEFECTIVE GROWER A GROWER B 2% $44,200 $42,600 4 40,200 40,300 6 36,200 38,000 8 32,200 35,700 10 28,200 33,400 Use decision-tree…Classify the following risks into variation, foreseen uncertainty, unforeseen uncertainty, and chaos:g. The Second World War caused auto manufacturers to switch to producingmilitary vehicles.A risk matrix, also called frequency-severity table is used to analyse risks.a. Describe how this matrix is utilised in the analysis of risks.
- Please provide the probability as Probability has not been provided for question b and c. As you know the Probabilty should allways be between 0 and 1 thank you!12.2. The manager of the I-85 Carpet Outlet needs to be able to forecast accurately the demand for Soft Shag carpet (its biggest seller). If the manager does not order enough carpet from the carpet mill, customers will buy their carpets from one of the outlet's many competitors. The manager has collected the following demand data for the past eight months: Demand for Soft Shag Carpet (1000 yd) Month ALE ni bno 1 10 6. 4. 8 14 6. 10 7 9. 8. 12 a. Compute a three-month moving average forecast for months 4 through 9. b. Compute a weighted three-month moving average forecast for months 4 through 9. Assign weights of .55, .33, and .12 to the months in sequence, starting with the most recent month. c. Compare the two forecasts using MAD. Which forecast appears to be more accurate? 3.The number of hybrid cars that have be requested for rental from a car rental office during a 50 day sample period is given in the following table. Demand for Cars Number of Days Probability 3 3 0.06 4 7 0.14 5 12 0.24 6 14 0.28 7 10 0.20 8 4 0.08 50 1.00What is the expected (mean) number of hybrid rentals per day? Compute to one decimal place.