From the decision tree branch shown, determine the expected values of the two outcomes if decision 03 is already selected and the maximum outcome value is sought. (This decision branch is part of a larger tree) Probability 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.6 When the probability is 0,4, the value is $60. When the probability is 0.3, the value is $-27. 0.4
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- The owner of a ski resort is considering installing a new ski lift that will cost $900,000. Expenses for operating andmaintaining the lift are estimated to be $1,500 per day when operating. The U.S. Weather Service estimates thatthere is a 60% probability of 80 days of skiing weather per year, a 30% probability of 100 days per year, and a 10% probability of 120 days per year. The operators of the resort estimate that during the first 80 days of adequate snow in a season, an average of 500 people will use the lift each day, at a fee of $10 each. If 20 additional days are available, the lift will be used by only 400 people per day during the extra period; and if 20 more days of skiing are available, only 300 people per day will use the lift during those days. The owners wish to recover any invested capital within five years and want at least a 25% per year rate of return before taxes. Based on a before-tax analysis, should the lift be installed?Please no written by hand and no emage Suppose a company can select among two decisions (d1 and d2) and face three states of nature (s1, s2 and s3) with the following payoff table: Decision s1 s2 s3 d1 150 200 200 d2 50 200 500 The probabilities of s1, s2, and s3 are unknown. Using the optimistic approach, what is the optimal decision and what is the value of the payoff? Place the optimal decision in the first answer box and the maximum payoff used to arrive at this decision in the second.Guy Fieri has purchased a significant plot of land in Northwest Ohio for his newest venture: FlavorTownship. This hub for mind-boggling flavor and entertainment is a strictly for-profit operation. Guy would like to keep Flavor Township open all year-round, but due to Ohio weather the following are the probabilities of when it will be open: |- 30% chance it is open 300 days a year |- 55% chance it is open 325 days a year |- 15% chance it is open 350 days a year Flavor Township will expect to host 14,000 people each day that it is open and expects an average revenue of $45 per visitor. This paradigm-shifting landmark will cost $420,000,000 to start the investment and will require annual costs (food, employees, etc.) of $115,000,000. Every 3 years, Flavor Township will undergo necessary maintenance that will cost $22,000,000. If the expected life of Flavor Township is 15 years and a 16% return is expected, what is the expected NPV of this project?
- The demand for a product of Carolina Industries varies greatly from month to month. The probability distribution in the following table, based on the past two years of data, shows the company's monthly demand. Unit Demand Probability 300 400 500 600 0.20 0.30 0.35 0.15 (a) If the company bases monthly orders on the expected value of the monthly demand, what should Carolina's monthly order quantity be for this product? (b) Assume that each unit demanded generates $70 in revenue and that each unit ordered costs $50. How much will the company gain or lose in a month (indoitars) if it places an order based on your answer to part (a) and the actual demand for the item is 300 units?Annual savings due to an energy efficiency project have a most likely value of $30,000.The high estimate of $40,000 has a probability of 0.2, and the low estimate of $20,000has a probability of 0.30. What is the expected value for the annual savings?Annual savings due to an energy efficiency project have a most likely value of $30,000. The high estimate of $40,000 has a probability of .25, and the low estimate of $20,000 has a probability of .35. (a) What is the expected value for the annual savings? (b) What types of tax incentives are available to firms for green projects?
- A gamble pays $450 with prob. p and pays $150 with prob. 1 - p, where p is the probability. If the expected value is 345, then p O 0.55 0.6 O 0.65 O 0.70Your company must decide whether to introduce a new product. The sales of the product will be either at a high (success) or low (failure) level. The conditional value for this decision is as follows Decision High Low Introduce $4,000,000 -$2,000,000 Do Not Introduce 0 0 Probability 0.3 0.7 You have the option to conduct a market survey to sharpen you market demand estimate. The survey costs $200,000. The survey provides incomplete information about the sales, with three possible outcomes: (1) predicts high sales, (2) predicts low sales, or (3) inconclusive. Such surveys have in the past provided these results Result High Low Predicts High 0.4 0.1 Inconclusive 0.4 0.5 Predicts Low 0.2 0.4 a) Using expected monetary value, what is your decision? b) What is the expected value of perfect information before taking the survey? c) Draw the complete decision tree, including the survey option. d) What is the…The owner of Tastee Cookies needs to decide whether to lease a small, medium, or large new retail outlet. She estimates that monthly profits will vary with demand for her cookies as follows: SIZE OFOUTLET DEMAND LOW HIGH Small $ 1,000 1,000 Medium 500 2,500 Large 0 3,000 For what range of probability that demand will be high, will she decide to lease the medium facility?
- One investment option will give a guaranteed income of $100,000. An alternative option is risky - there is a 80%chance of earning $62,500 and 20% chance of earning $250,000. A risk-averse person will choose the guaranteed income of $100,000 over the risky option. True O FalseProblem 1 Synergy Company sells co-amoxiclav antibiotic. The probability distribution of the demand for co-amoxiclav antibiotic is as follows: Estimated Sales in Units 120 units 210 units 300 units Probability 0.12 0.18 0.22 The estimated demand for co-amoxiclav antibiotics this coming month using the expected value approach is 1. How much is Expected Value? S =The Kwik Klean car wash loses $250 on rainy days and gains $1200 on non rainy days. If the probability of rain is 0.13, what is the expected net profit?