If sales are 43,854 and 43,811 for 2018 and 2019, what would you forecast for 2020 using exponential smoothing with a weight of 0.82 ? (The first forecast is equal to the actual value of the preceding year).
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A: F(t) = F(t-1) + (Alpha * (A(t-1) - F(t-1))) Where F(t-1) is the forecast for the previous period and…
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A:
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A: Given Information: Y = 300 X + 500.
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A: Numerous estimates are taken in statistical analysis.
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A: THE ANSWER IS AS BELOW:
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- Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?
- A company finds its actual sales during the first, second, and third quarters to be 183.5, 162.3, and 141 respectively. The initial forecast for the first quarter was 350.3052 and the forecast obtained by the exponential smoothing method without trend adjustment gave sales figures of 176 for the third quarter. You are not given the forecast for the second quarter. Find the value of alpha.Using linear regression analysis, what would you estimate demand to be for each month next year? Month Forecast January February March April May June July August September October November DecemberAfter using your forecasting model for six months, you decide to test it using MAD and a tracking signal. Here are the forecast and actual demands for the six-month period: PERIOD FORECAST ACTUAL May 450 480 June 500 560 July 550 380 August 590 465 September 635 650 October 715 610 a. Find the tracking signal for each month.
- Actual demand for a product for the past three months was: Three months ago 400 units Two months ago 350 units Last month 325 units Using a simple three-month moving average, make a forecast for this month. Note: Round your answer to the nearest whole number. If 300 units were actually demanded this month, what would your forecast be for next month, again using a three-month moving average? Note: Round your answer to the nearest whole number. Using simple exponential smoothing, what would your forecast be for this month if the exponentially smoothed forecast for three months ago was 450 units and the smoothing constant was 0.20? Note: Round your answer to the nearest whole number.My App is a small but growing start-up that sees demand for several of its apps increasing quickly. The table below shows the last six months of downloads. Use a forecast for the first month of 220,000, an initial trend forecast of 35,000, and smoothing parameters of 015 for both demand smoothing and trend smoothing Month (t) Monthly Application Downloads Forecast for Next Month Trend 220,000.00 35,000.00 200,000 2 250, 100 334,000 380,000 440,000 500,000 (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.) Complete the table above, filling in the "Forecast for next month" and "Trend" columns, using double a. exponential smoothing (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.) Month 7's forecast is b.Sales of Volkswagens have grown steadily at auto dealerships in Nevada during the past 5 years (see table below). Year Sales 1 460 2 502 3 518 4 575 5 580 Part 2 a) Forecasted sales for year 6 using the trend projection (linear regression) method are enter your response here sales (round your response to one decimal place).
- Given the following historical data, what is the simple three-period moving average forecast for period 6? Period Demand 1 73 2 71 3 72 4 73 66 5 (Keep two decimal places in your answer)Suppose a firm has had the following historic sales figures. Year: 2016 2017 2018 2019 Sales $3,400,000 $4,650,000 $3,300,000 $2,900,000 What would be the forecast for next year's sales using the naïve approach? Answer is complete but not entirely correct. Next year's sales $ 3,550,000 2020 $3,500,000Sales of Volkswagen's popular Beetle have grown steadily at auto dealerships in Nevada during the past 5 years (see table below). Year Sales 1 450 2 510 3 516 4 563 575 a) Forecasted sales for year 6 using the trend projection (linear regression) method are 613.7 sales (round your response to one decimal place). b) The MAD for a linear regression forecast is sales (round your response to one decimal place).