The Bayside Fountain Hotel is adjacent to County Coliseum, a 24,000- seat arena that is home to the city's professional basketball and ice hockey teams and that hosts a variety of concerts, trade shows, and conventions throughout the year. The hotel has experienced the following occupancy rates for the past 9 years, since the coliseum opened. Compute an exponentially smoothed forecast with an a value of .20. According to the result from Excel and/or POM-QM, the forecast for the year 5 would be (type number only, two decimals) Year Occupancy Rate (%) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 83 78 75 81 86 85 89 90 86
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- Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. Ethical decisions that affect a buyers ethical perspective usually involve the organizational environment, cultural environment, personal environment, and industry environment. Analyze this scenario using these four variables.Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What should Sharon do in this situation?Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What does the Institute of Supply Management code of ethics say about financial conflicts of interest?
- Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. Is Ben Gibson acting legally? Is he acting ethically? Why or why not?Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. As the Marketing Manager for Southeastern Corrugated, what would you do upon receiving the request for quotation from Coastal Products?Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?
- Local city government statistics show the rate of new driver’s license applications to be as follows: Month week Applications Weekly Forecast May 1 338 2 299 3 315 4 312 June 1 307 2 310 3 305 4 Using weights 1/2, 1/3, and 1/6 (with maximum weight given to most recent past), make a weighted moving average forecasts through week 4 of June.Sales of Volkswagen's popular Beetle have grown steadily at auto dealerships in Nevada during the past 5 years (see table below). Year Sales 1 450 2 510 516 4 570 575 a) Forecasted sales for year 6 using the trend projection (linear regression) method are 617.2 sales (round your response to one decimal place). b) The MAD for a linear regression forecast is sales (round your response to one decimal place).Taking actual 2015 sales of $48000 as the forecast for 2016, what sales would you forecast for 2017, 2018, and 2019, using exponential smoothing and a weight on actual values of (a) 0.4 and (b) 0.8 ?
- (a) Make a line chart for an m-period moving average to the exchange rate data shown below with m = 2, 3, 4, and 5 periods. For each method, state the last MA value. (Round your answers to 4 decimal places.) m-period Next period forecast 2: 3: 4: 5: Date Rate 1-Nov 1.2950 4-Nov 1.2906 5-Nov 1.2870 6-Nov 1.2872 7-Nov 1.2829 8-Nov 1.2790 12-Nov 1.2855 13-Nov 1.2840 14-Nov 1.2879 15-Nov 1.2901 18-Nov 1.2965 19-Nov 1.2926 20-Nov 1.2918 21-Nov 1.2915 22-Nov 1.2829 25-Nov 1.2885 26-Nov 1.2850 27-Nov 1.2881 29-Nov 1.2939 2-Dec 1.2936 3-Dec 1.3002 4-Dec 1.3095 5-Dec 1.3165 6-Dec 1.3127 9-Dec 1.3157 10-Dec 1.3178 11-Dec 1.3176 12-Dec 1.3133 13-Dec 1.3349 16-Dec 1.3330 17-Dec 1.3116 18-Dec 1.3078 19-Dec 1.3034 20-Dec 1.3036 23-Dec 1.2917 24-Dec 1.2955 26-Dec 1.3007 27-Dec 1.3090 30-Dec 1.3140 31-Dec 1.3269 2-Jan 1.3128 3-Jan 1.3091 6-Jan 1.3163 7-Jan 1.3127 8-Jan 1.3110 9-Jan 1.3069 10-Jan…The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 4 years: Year Demand 1 8 Provide the forecast from periods 2 through 5 using the naive approach (enter your responses as whole numbers) Year Forecast (NA) 2 8 2 Using exponential smoothing with a=0.50 and a forecast for year 1 of 7.0, provide the forecast from periods 2 through 5 (round your responses to one decimal place). 1 Year Forecast (ES) 7.0 2 3 3 6 3 4 4 10 4 5 5↑ As you can see in the following table, demand for heart transplant surgery at Washington General Hospital has increased steadily in the past few years 1 Year 2 3 4 5 Heart Transplants 46.0 52.0 52.0 57.0 60.0 The director of medical services predicted 6 years ago that demand in year 1 would be 42.0 surgeries a) Using exponential smoothing with a of 0.60 and the given forecast for year 1, the forecasts for years 2 through 6 are (round your responses to one decimal place) 2 3 5 6 Year Forecast 1 42.0 4