Module 3

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School

University of California, Los Angeles *

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Course

154A

Subject

Economics

Date

Apr 3, 2024

Type

docx

Pages

4

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Module 3 Discussion Topic 1 You’re the Subcontracts Manager at Fly'm Hi Airlines (FHA). You've got a quote from a vendor to develop a new seating arrangement on your small regional jets to increase capacity by 20% (adding 2 rows). You've never got a quote from them before, and they don't provide you their cost data. It's a commercial contract. What method of Price Analysis would you suggest using and why? Present your assumptions before you proceed with your suggestion. Then comment on 2 others that arrive at their conclusion. With the scenario stating this is developing a new seating arrangement, I am going to assume it is a project Fly’m Hi Airlines has never inquired about previously. They do not own any current jets with increased capacity or similar seating structure, leading me to believe they won’t have prior pricing or quotes to help in their analysis. These rule out Comparison to Prior Prices Paid and Comparison to Prior Quotes. Additionally, I will assume that this is not necessarily a project that uses commodity type items and therefore Use of Estimating Relationships may not be too helpful here. This pricing analysis is good for construction projects, or projects that commodity pricing (metal, wood, pricing per pound or square foot, etc.). There is one unknown that makes it hard for me to answer this question- are they getting quotes from other vendors as well? The above states there is “a quote from a vendor” but does not state if additional quotes are being procured. If they are quoting elsewhere, I feel Comparison of Proposed Prices Received in response to the Solicitation would be the best analysis. They can immediately find outliers in either direction (too high or too low of cost) and compare the mentioned quote to those in the same range. If they are not quoting elsewhere, I feel Comparison to Prices Paid for Similar Items is their best analysis. While they haven’t quoted this specific project, there must be an understanding of generic costs for new seating seeing as they have current jets in operation. What did they pay for their original seating arrangement? How similar is this new project to their current arrangement? Are they procuring identical materials (seats, trays, etc.) and just changing the layout to be more efficient? All of these questions should aid in the price analysis to determine if the current quote is reasonable.
Discussion Topic 2 The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has been a fantastic resource for determining the rates of deflation and inflation since 1967. That's why we compare the value of today's dollar to the one from 1967! Here is the link to the USBLS subject topics: http://www.bls.gov/bls/proghome.htm Links to an external site. Choose one of the following commodities or labor categories and arrive at the percent increase or decrease from October 2017 to October 2022 (5 years). Gasoline prices Flat screen televisions Laptop Computer State how you would explain to someone who has been in a vacuum why the price has changed since 2017. Please comment on other members of the class on their approach and how you may address it yourself. Looking at gasoline price, October 2017 had an inflation rate of 10.8% while October 2022 was 17.5%. This is an increase of approximately 62% over the 5 year span. There are numerous reasons for this spike, the most notable shared below. - The war in Ukraine: gas prices hit an all time high in 2022 when the US put a ban on Russian oil importing as a result of them invading Russia. Prior to this war, the US was importing an average of 100,000 barrels of oil per day from Russia. Stopping this import caused 8-12% increase in crude oil costs. With oil costs this high, gasoline hit an average of $5/gallon around the US. - Travel increased in 2022: gas prices historically follow travel demand. They tend to decrease in the summer when people are traveling less, and increase in the winter when people are traveling more. 2022 was the first full year where things started to feel slightly normal after the pandemic. 2020 was plagued with next to no non-critical travel. 2021 slowly eased into traveling, with many still too cautious to take trips. But 2022 seemed to delve back into traveling for most people, causing travel demand not to drop as expected in the summer. Gas prices followed suit with the higher travel demand. - Oil refineries had low storage: In 2022, the US had the lowest storage of natural gas since 2019. January 2022 was a colder than average month and record-high liquified natural gas exporting caused a shortage in US storage. Additionally, President Biden focused on moving away from gas-powered vehicles and stopped the Keystone XL pipeline after taking office. As a result, no one wanted to build new refineries if clean energy laws would be pushing them out of business.
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