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Analysis
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Mercury Athletic Footwear: Valuing the Opportunity
By
Christian Daba
Submitted
To
John Katkish
Background
West Coast Fashions, Inc has decided to sell one of their segments, Mercury Athletic in the context of a broader reorganization. The head of the business development for Active Gear, Inc(AGI), John Liedtke, views this event as a good
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Risk free rate is taken to be 4.69% while the market risk premium is 5.01%. 2. Beta for mercury is calculated by comparison with the companies having similar debt/equity ratio (25%). This beta is used in the calculation of cost of equity afterwards. The equity beta comes out to be 1.12.
Then we can use the following formula to calculate the WACC. The cost of debt is taken to be on an after tax basis to further to account for the depreciation tax shield.
WACC=Cost of debt*1-tax rate*debtValue+Cost of equity*(EquityValue)
The WACC comes out to be 8.96%.
Before moving forward to compute the present value of these cash flows, a terminal value is required to forecast the long term value of the company after 5 years. . Following formula is used to calculate the terminal value.
Terminal Value=Cash Flow at 2011*1+Terminal growth rateWACC-Terminal growth rate
The terminal growth rate is the average growth rates from 2007 to 2011. Combining with previous cash flows of 5 years, the whole future cash flows are:
Finally, we can calculate the NPV of these cash flows as the enterprise value of Mercury, which is $375,402,473.
For calculations of the acquisition price, the P/E is taken to be 8.6. The acquisition price is calculated by multiplying this value with the historical average of net income. Thus, the acquisition price comes out to be $186,215,800, which is $189,186,673 less than the enterprise value.
Based on my analysis,
Mercury’s parent company then branched out to complementary line of apparel products. With poor performance, Mercury is being sold off.
The discount rate of acquiring Mercury is also essential to know. Since discount cash flow is a valuation method used to estimate investment opportunities. Its purpose is to estimate money received from an investment and adjust for time value money (Harman (2011). In this case a 12% forecast was estimated and reflected a positive factor toward PV and NPV. There are however, some circumstances where discount cash flow can be a challenge for example, the most prevailing is when cash flow projections increase for each year in the forecast. It is then assumed that a company will mature in such a way that their maintainable growth rates will lean toward long-term rate of economic growth in the long run (Harman (2011). This intern becomes a challenge for the company against unexpected risks.
In order to obtain growth estimates for each year from 2003 to 2012, the data given in Exhibit 1 and Exhibit 6 of the case was used. The growth rate (%) was calculated by looking at the change in revenue from one year to the next starting with year
Suppose Ace, over the last few years, has had an 18 percent average return on equity (ROE) and has paid out 20 percent of its net income as dividends. Under what conditions could this information be used to help estimate the firm’s expected future growth rate, g? Estimate ks using this procedure for determining g.
WACC= (%of debt) (after-tax cost of debt) + (% of preferred stock)(Cost of preferred stock) + (% of common equity) (Cost of common equity)
If the cash flow at the end of 5 years is not expected to grow, i.e., g=0, then the general formula collapses to the PV of a no-growth perpetuity: Terminal Value5 = FCF6 / (k-g) = FCF5 (1+ g)/(k – g) = FCF5 / k
For g, we are given that the dividend has grown from $0.82 to $1.20 in four years. We use the compound interest formula to get the growth rate
Once we obtained the UFCF, the terminal value was calculated in three different ways, treating the pipeline as an asset on our books, finding the value of project if cash flows are received for perpetuity an finding the annuity value of cash flows for 30 years by assuming that after 1992 cash
Free cash flows are assumed to grow at a constant rate beyond a specified date in order to find the horizon, or terminal, value.
WACC or Weighted average cost of capital is found from a common stock, preferred stock, bonds and different components of debt cost. Signs of increased risk in the market can be found if the WACC increases, which also increases the beta and the rate of return. The WACC is important to know because it gives insight to future funding expenses. If the number is high, it means that the company will have more expenses to fund new projects. If the number is low, funding new projects will be less expensive and easier to complete.
What are the project’s cash flows for the next twenty years? What assumptions did you use? The project’s cash flows for the next twenty years is on the spreadsheet. The assumptions I use is as follows.
After 5-years, a bullet payment to discharge the debt will be made, and hence the terminal value can be estimated using WACC. The terminal value is 4 286,4.
With Beta at 1, the stock price changes in precise tandem with the market, but with Yeat’s beta at 1.5, it is more risky than a group of peer stocks.
using the weights and costs of debt and equity. The formula used is: WACC = wdkd (1-T) + weke.