How Did Pollsters Get It Wrong?
On last November 8th, the results of presidential election were a surprise and shock to most people around the world, especially US residents because they consistently projected Hillary Clinton would defeated Donald Trump. According to the article “Presidential Election Results: Donald J. Trump Wins” in The New York Times, the total votes for Clinton were 62,391,335 (48%) and for Trump were 61,125,956 (47%). However, in contrast to earlier predictions, some states elected to Trump instead of Clinton, and this result brought victory for Trump in the last hours of election day. In details, Trump had 6 electoral votes from Iowa, 10 electoral votes from Wisconsin, 18 electoral votes from Ohio, 20 electoral votes
…show more content…
"There is a great deal of speculation but no clear answers as to the cause of the disconnect, but there is one point of agreement: Across the board, polls underestimated Trump’s level of support.", said Andrew Mercer, Claudia Deane and Kyley McGeeney authors on their article “Why 2016 election polls missed their mark” in Pew Research Center. They also gave some several possible explanations for the misstep. The first factor might be what pollsters refer to as nonresponse bias. “Some groups, include the less educated voters who were a key demographic for Trump on Election Day, are consistently hard for pollsters to reach.” Then, the result would be a strongly pro-Trump segment of the population that simply did not show up in the polls in proportion to their actual share of the population. The next factor was many of those who were polled simply were not honest about whom they intended to vote for. The explanation for this factor was “support for Trump was socially undesirable, and that his supporters were unwilling to admit their support to pollsters”. In 1982, a similar case occurred in the gubernatorial election in California. Democrat Tom Bradley, the black mayor of Los Angeles, lost to Republican George Deukmejian despite having been ahead in the polls even though the voters were reluctant to tell interviewers that they were not going to vote for a black candidate. The third factor “involves the way pollsters identify likely voters. Because we can’t know in advance who is actually going to vote, pollsters develop models predicting who is going to vote and what the electorate will look like on Election Day.” This is a notoriously difficult task, and small differences in assumptions can produce sizable differences in election
The outcome of the 2016 election left many Americans feeling confused, angry, cheated, and terrified of the future. Somehow, the sexist, racist, homophobic candidate Donald Trump had become the nation’s president, though Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton received the majority of popular vote. This raised many questions over the constitutionality of the Electoral College system, and whether it was unfair to the people of the United States. In the electoral system, created by the Founding Fathers due to their lack of trust in the people, the constituents of each state vote for their preferred candidate, and all of the state’s electoral votes go to the candidate with a majority. Clearly, the Electoral
To secure the win the candidate must pass 270 of the electoral votes and even though seemed to be ahead of the race having more popular votes Trump passed 270 electoral votes just hours after the polls closed. Donald won 279 of the electoral votes while Hillary only won 228. Regardless of whether Trump had more or less of the popular votes it all comes down to the electoral votes. Although Trump has made many racist comments and angered many Hispanics he surprisingly won a lot of their votes which helped his victory with the electorate vote; As for African American voter the electorate vote went down slightly.(7 reasons) Compared to Obama Hillary just didn't do as well as he did when it comes to electoral votes and the popular vote. Trump on the other hand won the states of Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Ohio, all which voted for Obama both elections. Trump was not only lucky by winning over states who were expected to be won by Hillary but got a lot of help when Hillary's email incident sparked outrage in many
This past election has raised several questions and issues, one of them being on the effectiveness of the Electoral College. Though Clinton won the popular vote with a margin of 2,868,692 votes, Trump won the presidency because his electoral votes were greater. Many were confused as to how this could happen, but looking at a map of the U.S. county-wise, it is somewhat more believable. Most of Clinton’s votes were concentrated in major cities,unlike Trump’s which were more widespread. This allowed him to cast a wider net to collect more electoral votes. Despite this being the reasoning behind it, many question if this is the right path. In truth, the Electoral college system is very faulty in the sense that it misrepresents a large portion of American Citizens. Therefore, it requires several changes, i.e. converting to a proportional system rather than winner-take-all, to be made so it could better reflect the will of the people, without dismissing the entire establishment as a whole.
Larger states, like California and Texas, are a main focus for candidates because of the number of electoral votes that they would earn. Also, a president can be elected, even if he or she does not represent the ideas or opinions of the people. In rare cases, a president can win the popular vote and lose the electoral college vote. “If this is the case, the very large margins secured by the losing candidate in the other states would add up to over 50% of the ballots cast nationally. Therefore, the losing candidate may have gained more than 50% of the ballots cast by voters,” says “Does Your Vote Count? The Electoral College Explained”. If the people vote for a particular candidate, that candidate should be president. Finally, people who disagree with their states are not represented due to the “‘winner take all’” system. A person may vote for the democratic candidate but the republican
As in the past, the media was covering the all important election. They had always relied on exit polls as the polls closed across the nation. In reality, the Florida results were just too close to call. Nevertheless, that did not stop the media from doing so. Not once, but twice, major news media outlets were erroneous in their report. Around 8pm, it was declared that Al Gore was the projected winner of the electoral votes in the state of Florida. However, a couple of hours later, the projection was retracted and restated as Florida as being too close to call. Then, just after 2am on November 8, the mistake was made for a second time. The major networks declared George W. as the winner. This even led to Al Gore calling the Governor to concede. However, as Gore prepared to address his supporters in Nashville, Tennessee, he was alert to the shrinking numbers in Bush¡¦s lead. The final total was now less than one half of a percent lead in favor of Bush. That immediately calls for a recount of votes under state law. Subsequently, Gore called Bush and retracted his concession. It wasn¡¦t over yet! One thing was, Al Gore had prevailed in the popular vote but without Florida¡¦s tally, the electoral vote was up in the air. The election wasn¡¦t over and the recounts began.
During the election night there was uncertainty of who was the next president. After saying that Gore had won Florida and was then named president, more results came in and the news retracted what they said then named Bush as the winner of Florida and president. Even more results came in and the news also retracted that claiming it was too close to call.
The 2016 presidential election was an example of the discrepancy between the Electoral College votes and the national popular votes. If the last presidential election had been decided by a national popular vote, then Hillary Clinton would have won the presidency because she had the majority of votes. However, due to the design of the Electoral College, Donald Trump won the election for president in 2016; although, he lost the national popular vote. Just as some people questioned the effectiveness of the Electoral College during some of the previous elections, several people questioned the effectiveness of the Electoral College again in 2016. The debate about whether the Electoral College should be kept or
Despite losing the popular vote, George Bush became President in 2000 because of the Electoral College. Fundamentally, with the growth of the US into a larger territory, it has become necessary for the government to rely on the Electoral College system to equally distribute “votes” from each state. The winner of the state’s popular vote – under the method of winner-take-all – wins the state’s “electors” or delegates. The number of delegates is usually broken down by county and how many people reside in each county. Despite, say, Gore beating Bush in a state by 50,000 votes, and Bush wins another state by 1,000 votes but the state is worth more delegates, Bush receives the advantage in this scenario. Bush ended up losing the popular vote by
During the 2016 election, the GOP swept positions across the nation, controlling the Legislative, Executive, and soon the Judicial branch of government. Members of the Legislative and Judicial branch are elected by their state by forms of a direct democratic vote by the state’s citizens. When electing the President, it is more complex; there are two major factors involved, The Electoral College and popular vote. It is possible for most Americans to vote for a candidate, but that candidate can still lose the election as it has happened in multiple occasions; the only way to prevent this undemocratic act is to base elections on the country’s national popular vote, the people’s vote. The Electoral College is intended to bring balance to elections
Those aside from the Democrat and Republican groups, the other groups don’t fare well at all. Second being Republicans won in 2004 while Democrats won in 2012. There is also the percentage numbers are quite near the same between the two elections, but even seeing the same percentages the electoral votes are different between the two, showing us that numbers really don’t matter much when electoral votes are
Elections, if only due to their colossal size, are difficult to measure. The 2000 presidential election Florida recount exemplifies the issues associated with vote counting and the often unsuccessful implementation of technology to remedy a centuries old process. Technology in the election process is often accompanied by great skepticism, and blunders are not uncommon—see Mitt Romney’s
This election however wasn’t as close as the 2000 election. Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by a drastic margin in the Electoral College with 306 votes to Hillary’s 232.
On the morning of November 9, 2016 the great citizens of this country discovered that Donald J. Trump won presidential election. His win would set off a firestorm of protests against his victory and against the archaic process that carried Trump to victory; the Electoral College. However, what followed was people from all over complaining about how Trump won the Electoral College and how come if Clinton won the popular vote that she didn’t become the first woman president. In my quest to understand the voting process, I learned there are many people that find the whole election process to complicated and are not even the slightest bit interested in learning what part the people play in electing the president.
When the results of voting on Election Day were released, Republican Nominee Donald J. Trump won the presidency with 290 electoral votes and 61,201,031 popular votes, compared to Clinton’s 232 electoral votes and 62,523,126 popular votes. Although Donald Trump lost the popular vote, he had won where it
The 2017 general election was disappointing for many people; after we were left with a hung parliament, it has come into question, who has the right to form a government. More importantly, who won and was most successful in the election?