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Presidential Election Results

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How Did Pollsters Get It Wrong?
On last November 8th, the results of presidential election were a surprise and shock to most people around the world, especially US residents because they consistently projected Hillary Clinton would defeated Donald Trump. According to the article “Presidential Election Results: Donald J. Trump Wins” in The New York Times, the total votes for Clinton were 62,391,335 (48%) and for Trump were 61,125,956 (47%). However, in contrast to earlier predictions, some states elected to Trump instead of Clinton, and this result brought victory for Trump in the last hours of election day. In details, Trump had 6 electoral votes from Iowa, 10 electoral votes from Wisconsin, 18 electoral votes from Ohio, 20 electoral votes …show more content…

"There is a great deal of speculation but no clear answers as to the cause of the disconnect, but there is one point of agreement: Across the board, polls underestimated Trump’s level of support.", said Andrew Mercer, Claudia Deane and Kyley McGeeney authors on their article “Why 2016 election polls missed their mark” in Pew Research Center. They also gave some several possible explanations for the misstep. The first factor might be what pollsters refer to as nonresponse bias. “Some groups, include the less educated voters who were a key demographic for Trump on Election Day, are consistently hard for pollsters to reach.” Then, the result would be a strongly pro-Trump segment of the population that simply did not show up in the polls in proportion to their actual share of the population. The next factor was many of those who were polled simply were not honest about whom they intended to vote for. The explanation for this factor was “support for Trump was socially undesirable, and that his supporters were unwilling to admit their support to pollsters”. In 1982, a similar case occurred in the gubernatorial election in California. Democrat Tom Bradley, the black mayor of Los Angeles, lost to Republican George Deukmejian despite having been ahead in the polls even though the voters were reluctant to tell interviewers that they were not going to vote for a black candidate. The third factor “involves the way pollsters identify likely voters. Because we can’t know in advance who is actually going to vote, pollsters develop models predicting who is going to vote and what the electorate will look like on Election Day.” This is a notoriously difficult task, and small differences in assumptions can produce sizable differences in election

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