METHODLOGY
The purpose of this paper is concentrated on relationship between Vietnamese stock price relative to exchange rate and United State stock market. In order to have a better view about this relationships, the suitable econometrics model will be used in the research are OLS and ARMA. To determine the correlation, coefficients among the variables from the test we will be able to find out the β, R2, P-value, Standard Error, Durbin-Watson stat statistic etc... With the time series dataset, in other to get a good forecast, the regressions will be run and tested on EVIEW program. The main model will be use is:
VNSP= β_0 + β_1S&P500 + β_2VNER + ε (e1)
By using OLS model we can determine how much the dependent variable is influenced by the independent variables. The null and alternative hypothesizes will be as following:
VNSP Viet Nam’s monthly stock price index β Beta
S&P500 American monthly stock market index
VNER Viet Nam’s monthly exchange rate ε Error term
H_0: The Viet Nam’s monthly stock price index is not influenced by American monthly stock market index and Viet Nam’s monthly exchange rate.
H_1: The Viet Nam’s monthly stock price index is influenced by American monthly stock market index and Viet Nam’s monthly exchange rate.
MODELS
The program will be used to run regressions and analyze the outputs is EVIEW8. The Least Squares method of estimation is used for the analysis of the data. The least squares method of estimation is preferred
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