1. Calculate the forecast using 5 forecasting techniques/methodologies/models namely: Naive Model, Unweighted and Weighted Moving Averages, Exponential Smoothing, and Time-Series Regression. 2. For each of these models, calculate the 3 forecast errors namely: Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and the Mean Squared Error (MSE). 3. For the two Moving Averages models, use x3 academic years. 4. For the Weighted Moving Averages model, use: a weight of 0.40 for the most recent data; a weight of 0.35 for the second most recent data; and a weight of 0.25 for the third most recent data. 5. For the Simple Exponential Smoothing model, use a smoothing parameter, a=0.3. 6. Determine the forecasting technique that best suits the type and nature of data that you have. Briefly explain your answer. 7. Show your solutions/answers by filling up the tables below. 8. In all your computations, consistently use zwo (2) decimal places. Follow and fill out the table below for each model: CHAD 200 A
1. Calculate the forecast using 5 forecasting techniques/methodologies/models namely: Naive Model, Unweighted and Weighted Moving Averages, Exponential Smoothing, and Time-Series Regression. 2. For each of these models, calculate the 3 forecast errors namely: Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and the Mean Squared Error (MSE). 3. For the two Moving Averages models, use x3 academic years. 4. For the Weighted Moving Averages model, use: a weight of 0.40 for the most recent data; a weight of 0.35 for the second most recent data; and a weight of 0.25 for the third most recent data. 5. For the Simple Exponential Smoothing model, use a smoothing parameter, a=0.3. 6. Determine the forecasting technique that best suits the type and nature of data that you have. Briefly explain your answer. 7. Show your solutions/answers by filling up the tables below. 8. In all your computations, consistently use zwo (2) decimal places. Follow and fill out the table below for each model: CHAD 200 A
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter13: Regression And Forecasting Models
Section13.7: Exponential Smoothing Models
Problem 29P: The file P13_29.xlsx contains monthly time series data for total U.S. retail sales of building...
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