4.4 A check-processing center uses exponential smooth- ing to forecast the number of incoming checks each month. The number of checks received in June was 40 million, while the fore- cast was 42 million. A smoothing constant of .2 is used. a) What is the forecast for July? b) If the center received 45 million checks in July, what would be the forecast for August? c) Why might this be an inappropriate forecasting method for this situation? Px
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- The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?i need this to study stop canceling my questions A check-processing center uses exponential smooth- ing to forecast the number of incoming checks each month. The number of checks received in June was 40 million, while the fore- cast was 42 million. A smoothing constant of .2 is used. a) What is the forecast for July?b) If the center received 45 million checks in July, what would be the forecast for August?c) Why might this be an inappropriate forecasting method for the situation
- Consider the data below which includes sales data and the forecasts that would have been made using exponential smoothing with a = 0.3. Exp. Smoothing Time Period Sales Forecast 1 90 90 80 90 100 87 4 70 90.9 105 84.6 6. 85 90.7 Report all answers to 1 decimal place. a. Using exponential smoothing with a = 0.3, what is the forecast for time period 7? b. Using the naive value method, what is the forecast for time period 7? c. Using a 3-period moving average, what is the forecast for time period 7?3. A mobile phone store owner wants to predict the demand for mobile phones in October based on the following historical sales data: Month- April May June. July August September Number of phones sold. 100, 140- 110. 150. 120. 160- a. What is this month's forecast using Naive approach b. Using 3-Month Moving Average, develop forecasts for October's demand c. Using 5-Month Moving Average, develop forecasts for October's demand d. When making moving average forecasts, is it better to use a larger time span? -It wouldnt let me take a screenshot of the table so I had to copy and paste it in here. My question is: How do you Calculate a moving average forecast using the last 2 and 4 dates of stay. What is the prediction for 7/1/2021 for each technique? Discussion Question 1 - 200 room hotel Forecasts MA 2 Errors MA 4 Errors ES (0.8) Errors ES (0.5) Errors Date Day of Week Rooms Sold MA 2 MA 4 ES (0.8) ES (0.5) AE APE AE APE AE APE AE APE 6/1/2021 Tuesday 123 6/2/2021 Wednesday 109 6/3/2021 Thursday 140 6/4/2021 Friday 199 6/5/2021 Saturday 179 6/6/2021 Sunday 140 6/7/2021 Monday 117 6/8/2021 Tuesday 132 6/9/2021 Wednesday 108 6/10/2021 Thursday 151…
- D.) compute MAPE for each data set. Which forecast appears to be more accurate?9 10 38 36 39 Month 1 2 4 5 7 11 12 Flat-Screen Sales 30 32 30 39 33 34 34 30 36 a) Determine the one-step-ahead flat-screen sales forecasts for the first month of next year using 3- and 5-month moving averages. b) Using a 5-month moving average, determine the one-step-ahead flat-screen forecasts for the 7th through 12th months. Compute the MAD. c) Suppose that exponential smoothing is used with a smoothing constant alpha = 0.1 to forecast flat-screen sales for the 7th through 12th months. d) Based on MAD which method did better?Q1) Forecasting is both art and science. Describe the situations where we use Qualitative forecasting techniques and quantitative forecasting techniques
- 1. Compute three-period moving average and forecasting errors for the following time series: Period (t): 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Value (Xt): 15 27 20 14 25 11 15 20 25 22 compute mean absolute deviation (MAD) and mean square error (MSE) and interpret the obtained results. 2. What do you understand by the analysis of time series, explain in details? Give a brief introduction of forecasting.q 1 An analyst must decide between two different forecasting techniques for weekly sales of roller blades. Based on the following data, answer the below questions. time Units sold 1 147 2 148 3 151 4 145 5 155 6 152 7 155 8 157 9 160 10 165 What's the MAD if the exponential smoothing technique with alpha 0.4 is used?Qualitative forecasting methods should be used only asa last resort. Agree or disagree? Comment.