A decision tree is a graphic display of the decision process that indicates decision alternatives, states ofnature and their respective probabilities, and payoffs for each combination of alternative and states ofnature.O TrueO False* PreviousNext ►MacBook Air000000DDF7セゴF5$&レ9* 00

Answered: A decision tree is a graphic display of…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Section9.5: Multistage Decision Problems

Problem 22P: The model in Example 9.3 has only two market outcomes, good and bad, and two corresponding...

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The model in Example 9.3 has only two market outcomes, good and bad, and two corresponding predictions, good and bad. Modify the decision tree by allowing three outcomes and three predictions: good, fair, and bad. You can change the inputs to the model (monetary values and probabilities) in any reasonable way you like. Then you will also have to modify the Bayes rule calculations. You can decide whether it is easier to modify the existing tree or start from scratch with a new tree.
Dilberts Department Store is trying to determine how many Hanson T-shirts to order. Currently the shirts are sold for 21, but at later dates the shirts will be offered at a 10% discount, then a 20% discount, then a 40% discount, then a 50% discount, and finally a 60% discount. Demand at the full price of 21 is believed to be normally distributed with mean 1800 and standard deviation 360. Demand at various discounts is assumed to be a multiple of full-price demand. These multiples, for discounts of 10%, 20%, 40%, 50%, and 60% are, respectively, 0.4, 0.7, 1.1, 2, and 50. For example, if full-price demand is 2500, then at a 10% discount customers would be willing to buy 1000 T-shirts. The unit cost of purchasing T-shirts depends on the number of T-shirts ordered, as shown in the file P10_36.xlsx. Use simulation to determine how many T-shirts the company should order. Model the problem so that the company first orders some quantity of T-shirts, then discounts deeper and deeper, as necessary, to sell all of the shirts.
The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?
Based on Babich (1992). Suppose that each week each of 300 families buys a gallon of orange juice from company A, B, or C. Let pA denote the probability that a gallon produced by company A is of unsatisfactory quality, and define pB and pC similarly for companies B and C. If the last gallon of juice purchased by a family is satisfactory, the next week they will purchase a gallon of juice from the same company. If the last gallon of juice purchased by a family is not satisfactory, the family will purchase a gallon from a competitor. Consider a week in which A families have purchased juice A, B families have purchased juice B, and C families have purchased juice C. Assume that families that switch brands during a period are allocated to the remaining brands in a manner that is proportional to the current market shares of the other brands. For example, if a customer switches from brand A, there is probability B/(B + C) that he will switch to brand B and probability C/(B + C) that he will switch to brand C. Suppose that the market is currently divided equally: 10,000 families for each of the three brands. a. After a year, what will the market share for each firm be? Assume pA = 0.10, pB = 0.15, and pC = 0.20. (Hint: You will need to use the RISKBINOMLAL function to see how many people switch from A and then use the RISKBENOMIAL function again to see how many switch from A to B and from A to C. However, if your model requires more RISKBINOMIAL functions than the number allowed in the academic version of @RISK, remember that you can instead use the BENOM.INV (or the old CRITBENOM) function to generate binomially distributed random numbers. This takes the form =BINOM.INV (ntrials, psuccess, RAND()).) b. Suppose a 1% increase in market share is worth 10,000 per week to company A. Company A believes that for a cost of 1 million per year it can cut the percentage of unsatisfactory juice cartons in half. Is this worthwhile? (Use the same values of pA, pB, and pC as in part a.)
A) Why is the conditional variance a good measure of uncertainty? B) Outline the GARCH model and GARCH-M model. C) Outline one of the extensions to the basic GARCH family of models
What are the probabilities in a decision problem called that are computed from the prior probabilities using Bayes Theorem? posterior probabilities O binomial probabilities O none of the other choices O one-step transition probabilities « Previous Next Simpfun
The Decision Variables in a What If analysis provide the limitations for each variable. True False
A decision tree Group of answer choices None of these statements. presents all decision alternatives first and follows them with all states of nature. All of these statements. presents all states of nature first and follows them with all decision alternatives. arranges decision alternatives and states of nature in their natural chronological order. alternates the decision alternatives and states of nature.
Develop a spreadsheet for the question. The vice president of finance has looked at your ooriginal scoring model and feels that tax considerations should be included in teh model with a weight of 15. In addition, the VP has scored the methods on tax considerations as follows: method A recieved a score of 3, method B recieved a score of 2, and Method C recieved a score of 1. How would this additional information affect your recommendation?
A decision table describes results associated with which of the following A) Two decision variables B) One decision variable and one uncertain variable C) Two uncertain variables D) None of the above
What is the advantages of using predictive analyctics? Explain in 250 words. Say that it improves decision making, making competitive advantage, improves risk management, and others.
Determine the two best decision alternatives by a pessimistic decision maker. Decision dl d2 d3 d4 d2 and d4 Od1 and d4 Od1 and d2 d3 and d4 States of Nature $1 320 280 d1 and d3 170 450 $2 425 -160 100 220 83 -150 160 325 -175

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A decision tree is a graphic display of the decision process that indicates decision alternatives, states of nature and their respective probabilities, and payoffs for each combination of alternative and states of nature. O True False