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Exhibit A.
Southland Corporation’s decision to produce a new line of recreational products resulted in the need to construct either a small plant, medium or large plant. The best selection of plant size depends on how the marketplace reacts to the new product line. To conduct an analysis, marketing management has decided to view the possible long-run demand as low, medium, or high. The following payoff table shows the projected profit in millions of dollars:
|
Long-run Demand |
||
Plant Size |
Low |
Medium |
High |
Small |
225 |
280 |
300 |
Medium |
120 |
280 |
370 |
Large |
75 |
280 |
750 |
Referring to Exhibit A,
Assume that the prior probabilities for low, medium and high demand are 0.2, 0.5 and 0.3, respectively.
d. Construct a decision tree and solve this problem. Which decision alternative should be chosen and what is the expected payoff?
e. Consolidate the data and results in a table and update the decision tree to facilitate what-if analysis.
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- Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What should Sharon do in this situation?Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What does the Institute of Supply Management code of ethics say about financial conflicts of interest?Exhibit A. Southland Corporation’s decision to produce a new line of recreational products resulted in the need to construct either a small plant, medium or large plant. The best selection of plant size depends on how the marketplace reacts to the new product line. To conduct an analysis, marketing management has decided to view the possible long-run demand as low, medium, or high. The following payoff table shows the projected profit in millions of dollars: Long-run Demand Plant Size Low Medium High Small 225 280 300 Medium 120 280 370 Large 75 280 750 Referring to Exhibit A, a. Identify the decision to be made, the decision alternatives, the chance event and the states of nature for this problem. b. What alternative should be chosen under the maximin criterion? Assume that the prior probabilities for low, medium and high demand are 0.2, 0.5 and 0.3, respectively. c. What is the recommendation if the Bayes' Decision Rule is…
- Exhibit A. Southland Corporation’s decision to produce a new line of recreational products resulted in the need to construct either a small plant, medium or large plant. The best selection of plant size depends on how the marketplace reacts to the new product line. To conduct an analysis, marketing management has decided to view the possible long-run demand as low, medium, or high. The following payoff table shows the projected profit in millions of dollars: Long-run Demand Plant Size Low Medium High Small 150 200 200 Medium 80 200 250 Large 50 200 500 Referring to Exhibit A, a. Identify the decision to be made, the decision alternatives, the chance event and the states of nature for this problem. b. What alternative should be chosen under the maximax criterion? Assume that the prior probabilities for low, medium and high demand are 0.25, 0.40 and 0.35, respectively. c. What is the recommendation if the maximum likelihood…Muñoz Corporation's decision to produce a new line of recreational products resulted in the need to construct either a small plant or a large plant. The best selection of plant size depends on how the marketplace reacts to the new product line. To conduct an analysis, marketing management has decided to view the possible long-run demand as low, medium, or high. The following payoff table shows the projected profit in millions of dollars. Long-Run Demand Plant Size Low Medium High Small 250 300 300 Large 150 300 600 (a) What is the decision to be made, and what is the chance event for Muñoz problem? The decision is to choose the best plant size . There are 2 alternatives. The chance event is the market demand for the new product line There are 3 possible outcomes. (b) Construct an influence diagram. (Submit a file with a maximum size of 1 MB.) Choose File No file chosen This answer has not been graded yet. (c) Construct a decision tree. (Submit a file with a maximum size of 1 MB.)…Given is a decision payoff table and a Sub Decision Payoff Table. Use Minimax Regret as an evaluation criterion to evaluate alternatives. Alternatives Low Future Demand Moderate High Small Facility 52 42 43 Medium Facility 50 49 49 Large Facility -15 38 Alternatives Small Facility Medium Facility Large Facility Worst Regrets ? ? ? a) The worst regrets for alternative Small Facility is Blank 1 b) The worst regrets for alternative Medium Facility is Blank 2 c) The worst regrets for alternative Large Facility is Blank 3 d) The best course of action or decision by using Minimax Regret is to select Blank 4 facility 51
- Given is a decision payoff table and a Sub Decision Payoff Table. Use Minimax Regret as an evaluation criterion to evaluate alternatives. Alternatives Low Future Demand Moderate Small Facility 49 48 Medium Facility 46 47 Large Facility -12 112 47 Alternatives Small Facility Medium Facility Large Facility Worst Regrets ? ? ? a) The worst regrets for alternative Small Facility is Blank 1 b) The worst regrets for alternative Medium Facility is Blank 2 c) The worst regrets for alternative Large Facility is Blank 3 d) The best course of action or decision by using Minimax Regret is to select Blank 4 facility 47 ཆེ་ཆེ་བེ་རྡོ HighABC Company has several branches within the city. One of its branches is suffering from declining sales, andmanagement has a range of options:a. Shut down the branch and sell for P5Mb. Undertake a major renovationc. Undertake a cheaper renovationIn the past, 2/3 of renovation have achieved good results, while 1/3 achieved poor results. The major renovationwill cost P4M. Estimates of outcomes are as follows:a. Good results: P13.5M profitb. Poor results: P6.5M profitOn the other hand, there is a more economical renovation option that costs P2M. Estimates of outcomes areas follows:a. Good results: P8.5M profitb. Poor results: P 4M Required: Prepare a decision tree and recommend what action would be taken:a. Shut down the branch and sell for P5Mb. Undertake a major renovationc. Choose the economical optionA battery manufacturing plant has been ordered to cease discharging acidic waste liquids containing mercury into the city sewer system. As a result, the firm must now adjust the pH and remove the mercury from its waste liquids. Quotations from three firms are included in the following table of costs. Bidder Installed Cost Annual Operating Cost Annual Income from Mercury Recovery Salvage Value Foxhill $ 70,000 $5000 $6500 $10,000 Instrument Quicksilver 50,000 5000 2500 0 Almaden 90,000 5000 7800 10,000 If the installation will last 15 years and money is worth 12%, which equipment should be purchased?
- 4.) After 10 years of production, the chemical manufacturing plant has become very successful. Because of its success, a great demand for products came as many consumers wanted the company to sell them their products. To meet the demand, three alternatives were considered. Work overtime to meet demands. Annual overtime expenses are $500,000. Expand the plant to accommodate more production. Fixed annual expenses are $2,500,000. Make a contract with another company to produce additional products at a rate of $1,000,000. The cost of manufacturing products from the three alternatives are $3500, $3000 and $3250 per unit respectively. The plant sells every unit made regardless of how they were made at $15,000 per unit. The expected demand for the product is 150 units with a probability of 50% 250 units with a probability of 35% 350 units with a probability of 7.5% 400 units with a probability of 5% 500 units with a probability of 2.5%Explain Sensitivity Analysis, Risk, and Feasibility Analysis?During a major expansion in 2004, Douwalla’s Import Company developed a new processing line for which the delivered equipment cost was $1.75 million. This year, the board of directors decided to expand into new markets and expects to build the current version of the same line. Estimate the cost if the following factors are applicable: construction cost factor is 0.20, installation cost factor is 0.50, indirect cost factor applied against equipment is 0.25, and the total plant cost index has risen from 2509 to 3713 over the years.