Explain the trade-off between responsiveness and stability in a forecasting system that uses time-series data.
Q: How do exponential smoothing advantages have over moving averages as a forecasting tool?
A: The advantages of exponential smoothing as a forecasting method over operating averages are as…
Q: Explain the trade off of responsiveness in a time series forecasting system
A: In return for improvements on other issues, Tradeoff is a situation-based technique that entails…
Q: Explain why it's important to keep track of forecasting errors.
A: For a time series or other phenomenon of interest, forecast error is the difference between the…
Q: What advantages does exponential smoothing have over movingcaverages as a forecasting tool?
A: The following are the benefits of exponential smoothing as a forecasting tool over moving averages.…
Q: Explain what is seasonality and how forecast is done using data that has seasonality
A: In time series analysis, seasonalities are regarded as repeated up / down cyclic patterns in serial…
Q: Given a 3-quarter period of actual and forecast demand as shown in the table. The company ABC sets a…
A: A forecasting method is a managerial tool which help to predict the unknown future based on…
Q: Who needs to be involved in preparing forecasts?
A: The manager ultimately has the key responsibility to prepare the forecast. An organization should…
Q: Explain the basic assumptions made when using time series forecasting techniques as opposed to…
A: The Time Series Initial Phase makes a variety of assumptions.
Q: What are ways of managing a poor forecast?
A: A bad forecast presupposes that there has been a mismatch between the demand and supply as a result…
Q: What category of forecasting techniques uses managerial judgment in lieu of numerical data?
A: Qualitative forecasting.
Q: What is a time series and the rationale for forecasting based on a time series analysis?
A: Forecasting refers to the prediction of the future based on some evidence or a strong base.…
Q: Explain when to use a time series forecasting techniques
A: The statistical techniques are applied to past records and hence to the projected variables.…
Q: State and describe the steps involved in developing a forecasting system
A: To be determined: the steps involved in developing a forecasting system
Q: If the Tracking Signal for your forecast was consistently positive, what could you then say this…
A: If the tracking signal of the forecast is always positive, then it is bias and consistently too low.…
Q: List the various type of analytical tools and methods used in forecasting?
A: Numerous statistical approaches are used to examine the data, which enables the data to be…
Q: Briefly describe the steps that are used to develop a forecasting system.
A: Forecasting is the primary function for predicting the future using the available data to make the…
Q: Identify the major differences between qualitative and quantitative forecasting.
A: Forecasting can be defined as the technique which predicts the future information based on…
Q: Explain the tradeoff between responsiveness and stability in forecasting system that uses…
A: Forecasting: Forecasting can be termed as prediction of future sales or demand of a product. It is a…
Q: Which qualitative forecasting technique was developed to ensure that the input from every…
A: Delphi method.
Q: Explain the relationship between forecasting and quality management?
A: Total quality management (TQM) is a continual process of identifying and avoiding or eliminating…
Q: Explain what forecasting techniques makes use of written surveys or telephone interviews
A: Operations management manages the internal operation. It starts with the procurement and ends with…
Q: What type of forecasting method would you recommend to a start-up retailer in terms of quantities,…
A: Demand forecasting is very important for any startup when you have an absence of resources and…
Q: Explain what can a company do to resolve the problem of forecasting accuracy?
A: Forecasting is the technique of anticipating the future using facts from the past and present.…
Q: What benefits does exponential smoothing have over moving averages as a forecasting tool?
A: As a forecasting function, exponential smoothing has the following benefits over running averages:…
Q: What forecasting technique makes use of written surveys or telephone interviews?
A: Ans- Forecasting is the process of making assumptions of the future on the basis of past and present…
Q: The manager of a large manufacturer of industrial pumps must choose between two alternative…
A: Both techniques have been used to prepare forecasts for a six month period as follows:
Q: What are the issues associated with qualitative forecasting, and how are these overcome? Provide…
A: Qualitative forecasting is a strategy for making forecasts about an organization's funds that…
Q: Can you tell the difference between "correct" and "true" when it comes to forecasting?
A: Forecasting is important in supply chain management because the production and inventory process of…
Q: An example of the Quantitative Method of forecasting is
A: Businesses and salespeople can use quantitative forecasting, an objective, data-based process, to…
Q: Forecasting time horizons include:a) long range. b) medium range.c) short range. d) all of the…
A: Forecasting refers to making decisions and predicting on the basis of previous or past experiences.
Q: Explain the nature of forecasting when it's periods are farthest into the future in forecasting ?
A: To be determined: the nature of forecasting when it's periods are farthest into the future in…
Q: mon forecasting techniques.
A: It is possible to describe forecasting as a method of making predictions about the future based on…
Q: Explain why is accurate forecasting so important to companies that use a continuous replenishment…
A: Forecasting is the practice of making future assumptions based on historical and current data, most…
Q: List the analytical tools and methods used in forecasting?
A: Forecasting is the process of making assumptions of the future on the basis of past and present data…
Q: How much does the forecasting process at Deckers correspond with the “typical forecasting process”…
A: Forecasting is the tool which uses the historical data as the inputs to make the informed estimates…
Q: ontrast the reactive and proactive approaches to forecasting. Give several examples of types of…
A: Forecasting: Forecasting is a technique and a method which takes into consideration a set of…
Q: Explain the six steps involved in a typical forecasting procedure.
A: Forecasting is a technique that enables the creation of informed forecasts by utilising previous…
Q: Discuss the basic assumptions made when using time series forecasting techniques as apposed to…
A: Time series forecasting fundamental assumptions:
Q: Explain when is time series forecasting used ?
A: Forecasting is the process of predicting future events based on previous data and information.
Q: How many steps are there in collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment (CPFR)?
A: There are 9 steps in collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment (CPFR). They are:
Q: Explain how the technology of forecasting can be improved
A: Forecasting is a long-term and short-term activity that the company engages in on a regular basis.…
Q: Discuss what is seasonality and how forecast is done using data that has seasonality?
A: Time series analysis describes seasonal patterns as recurrent upward and downward cyclic patterns in…
Q: Calculate and answer parts a through d. Include all calculations and spreadsheets in your post.…
A: Formula: Answer:
Q: Discuss what advantages as a forecasting tool does exponential smoothing have over moving averages?
A: In today's environment, when events change often, the exponential smoothing method is optimal.…
Q: How can you evaluate the accuracy of a forecast model? explain in detail
A: Forecasting is the process of making assumptions of the future on the basis of past and present data…
Explain the trade-off between responsiveness and stability in a
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- The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?The owner of a restaurant in Bloomington, Indiana, has recorded sales data for the past 19 years. He has also recorded data on potentially relevant variables. The data are listed in the file P13_17.xlsx. a. Estimate a simple regression equation involving annual sales (the dependent variable) and the size of the population residing within 10 miles of the restaurant (the explanatory variable). Interpret R-square for this regression. b. Add another explanatory variableannual advertising expendituresto the regression equation in part a. Estimate and interpret this expanded equation. How does the R-square value for this multiple regression equation compare to that of the simple regression equation estimated in part a? Explain any difference between the two R-square values. How can you use the adjusted R-squares for a comparison of the two equations? c. Add one more explanatory variable to the multiple regression equation estimated in part b. In particular, estimate and interpret the coefficients of a multiple regression equation that includes the previous years advertising expenditure. How does the inclusion of this third explanatory variable affect the R-square, compared to the corresponding values for the equation of part b? Explain any changes in this value. What does the adjusted R-square for the new equation tell you?The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.
- The file P13_29.xlsx contains monthly time series data for total U.S. retail sales of building materials (which includes retail sales of building materials, hardware and garden supply stores, and mobile home dealers). a. Is seasonality present in these data? If so, characterize the seasonality pattern. b. Use Winters method to forecast this series with smoothing constants = = 0.1 and = 0.3. Does the forecast series seem to track the seasonal pattern well? What are your forecasts for the next 12 months?The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. Is Ben Gibson acting legally? Is he acting ethically? Why or why not?
- Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. As the Marketing Manager for Southeastern Corrugated, what would you do upon receiving the request for quotation from Coastal Products?The file P13_26.xlsx contains the monthly number of airline tickets sold by the CareFree Travel Agency. a. Create a time series chart of the data. Based on what you see, which of the exponential smoothing models do you think will provide the best forecasting model? Why? b. Use simple exponential smoothing to forecast these data, using a smoothing constant of 0.1. c. Repeat part b, but search for the smoothing constant that makes RMSE as small as possible. Does it make much of an improvement over the model in part b?Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. Ethical decisions that affect a buyers ethical perspective usually involve the organizational environment, cultural environment, personal environment, and industry environment. Analyze this scenario using these four variables.
- Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What does the Institute of Supply Management code of ethics say about financial conflicts of interest?Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What should Sharon do in this situation?The file P13_02.xlsx contains five years of monthly data on sales (number of units sold) for a particular company. The company suspects that except for random noise, its sales are growing by a constant percentage each month and will continue to do so for at least the near future. a. Explain briefly whether the plot of the series visually supports the companys suspicion. b. By what percentage are sales increasing each month? c. What is the MAPE for the forecast model in part b? In words, what does it measure? Considering its magnitude, does the model seem to be doing a good job? d. In words, how does the model make forecasts for future months? Specifically, given the forecast value for the last month in the data set, what simple arithmetic could you use to obtain forecasts for the next few months?