QUESTIONS:Quarterly demand for a washing machine is as shown.1. After obtaining initial estimates for level, trend, and seasonal factors. forecast the demand for the firstquarter of year III using Winter's model with a 6- - 0,25 where x is the last two digits of yourstudent number.2. Make a tracking signal analysis for the forecast and evaluateMaksYearIIIQuarter12341234Demand19001224400056004800104862008000

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Answered: QUESTIONS: Quarterly demand for a…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter13: Regression And Forecasting Models

Section13.6: Moving Averages Models

Problem 22P: The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six...

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Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?
The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.
The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?
The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?
Q1) Forecasting is both art and science. Describe the situations where we use Qualitative forecasting techniques and quantitative forecasting techniques
Question 03 Suppose you sell stylish leather bags targeting young office going people who can use your bags to carry laptops and necessary stuff. You have already launched leather bags in February of this year and now based on the demand results of last 7 months, you want to predict the demand for your bags for the month of September. Hence, you want to select the right forecasting techniques and you are considering 2 period Moving Average, Naive technique and Exponential Smoothing (use any value between .10 - .15 as the value of alpha). Now figure out the better forecasting technique among 2 period Moving Average, Naive technique and Exponential Smoothing by doing the error calculation with the help of MAD, MSE, MAPE. Period Demand 2period Moving Average (Demand forecast) Naive technique (Demand forecast) Exponential Smoothing (Demand forecast) February 70 75 ** ** March 74 78 ** ** April 80 ** ** ** May 88 ** ** ** June…
Month Demand Sept. 78 Oct. 80 Nov. 77 Dec. 85 Jan. Based on the time series data presented above, do the forecasts using 2-month moving average (2-MA) and single exponential smoothing (SES) with a = 0.4, and answer the following questions: %3D (i) What is the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for 2-MA? (ii) What is the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for SES a = 0.4 ? (iii) Based on what you got, which method is more accurate?
Font Paragraph Styles Question 3 Consider the following from an estate agent's business nationally: Month Houses Sold Jan Feb Mar 380 360 390 Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct 400 390 380 394 454 460 460 Nov Dec 430 370 a) Calculate the three point moving averages (quarters) and seasonal variation for the above data b) Define moving averages and how they're useful in forecasting (use Harvard referencing) c) At races, your horse, White Rum, has a probability of 1/20 of coming 1st, 1/10 of coming 2nd and a probability of 4 in coming 3rd. First place pays $5,000 to the winner, second place $4,000 and third place $1,350. Hence, is it worth entering the race if it costs $1050?
There is a bias towards under forecasting, though we cannot determine from the data provided whether that is severe bias or not O There is a severe bias towards under forecasting O Bias is negligible in this case Question 22 A MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation) of 17.3 suggests which of the following? O There is an over-forecasting bias of 17.3 O The standard deviation for the forecast data is 17.3 O All forecasts fall within 17.3 of the actual data O On average, the forecasts miss by 17.3 O Without knowing the average, the MAD is useless 0 日
12-1. The Hartley-Davis motorcycle dealer in the Minneapolis- St. Paul area wants to be able to forecast accurately the de- mand for the Roadhog Super motorcycle during the next month. From sales records, the dealer has accumulated the data in the following table for the past year. Month January February March April Мay June Motorcycle Sales 7 10 8 7 12 July August September 10 11 12 October 10 November December 14 16 a Compute a three-month moving average forecast of demand for April through January (of the next year). b. Compore a five-month moving average forecast for June drough January. c. Compare the two forecasts computed in parts (a) and (b) using MAD. Which one should the dealer use for January of dhe next year?
1. Forecasting stationary series The company Handy Inc. produces a solar-powered electronic calculator that has experienced the following monthly sales history for the first four months of the year (in thousands of units): January February. March. April sales 23.3. 72.3. 30,3. 15.5 a) Find the forecast for May using the Moving Averages method with N = 3. b) Assume that the forecast for January was 25. Determine the one-step ahead forecast for February through May, using exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of α = 0.15. c) Repeatthecalculationinproblembforavalueofα=0.40. d) Compare the MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation) and MSE (Mean Squared Error) for the forecast for February to April in problems b and c. Comment the accuracy of the forecasts. e) The demand in May turned out to be 30. Which of the three forecasting method were most accurate for this prediction? 2. Regression analysis 3 000 000 2 500 000 2 000…
It wouldnt let me take a screenshot of the table so I had to copy and paste it in here. My question is: How do you Calculate a moving average forecast using the last 2 and 4 dates of stay. What is the prediction for 7/1/2021 for each technique? Discussion Question 1 - 200 room hotel Forecasts MA 2 Errors MA 4 Errors ES (0.8) Errors ES (0.5) Errors Date Day of Week Rooms Sold MA 2 MA 4 ES (0.8) ES (0.5) AE APE AE APE AE APE AE APE 6/1/2021 Tuesday 123 6/2/2021 Wednesday 109 6/3/2021 Thursday 140 6/4/2021 Friday 199 6/5/2021 Saturday 179 6/6/2021 Sunday 140 6/7/2021 Monday 117 6/8/2021 Tuesday 132 6/9/2021 Wednesday 108 6/10/2021 Thursday 151…

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