Seas Beginning sells clothing by mail order. Animportant question is when to strike a customer fromthe company’s mailing list. At present, the companystrikes a customer from its mailing list if a customerfails to order from six consecutive catalogs. Thecompany wants to know whether striking a customerfrom its list after a customer fails to order from fourconsecutive catalogs results in a higher profit percustomer. The following data are available:■ If a customer placed an order the last time shereceived a catalog, then there is a 20% chance shewill order from the next catalog.■ If a customer last placed an order one catalog ago,there is a 16% chance she will order from the nextcatalog she receives.■ If a customer last placed an order two catalogs ago,there is a 12% chance she will order from the nextcatalog she receives.■ If a customer last placed an order three catalogsago, there is an 8% chance she will order from thenext catalog she receives.■ If a customer last placed an order four catalogsago, there is a 4% chance she will order from thenext catalog she receives.■ If a customer last placed an order five catalogs ago,there is a 2% chance she will order from the nextcatalog she receives.It costs $2 to send a catalog, and the average profitper order is $30. Assume a customer has just placedan order. To maximize expected profit per customer,would Seas Beginning make more money cancelingsuch a customer after six nonorders or four nonorders?

Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
Section: Chapter Questions
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Seas Beginning sells clothing by mail order. An
important question is when to strike a customer from
the company’s mailing list. At present, the company
strikes a customer from its mailing list if a customer
fails to order from six consecutive catalogs. The
company wants to know whether striking a customer
from its list after a customer fails to order from four
consecutive catalogs results in a higher profit per
customer. The following data are available:
■ If a customer placed an order the last time she
received a catalog, then there is a 20% chance she
will order from the next catalog.
■ If a customer last placed an order one catalog ago,
there is a 16% chance she will order from the next
catalog she receives.
■ If a customer last placed an order two catalogs ago,
there is a 12% chance she will order from the next
catalog she receives.
■ If a customer last placed an order three catalogs
ago, there is an 8% chance she will order from the
next catalog she receives.
■ If a customer last placed an order four catalogs
ago, there is a 4% chance she will order from the
next catalog she receives.
■ If a customer last placed an order five catalogs ago,
there is a 2% chance she will order from the next
catalog she receives.
It costs $2 to send a catalog, and the average profit
per order is $30. Assume a customer has just placed
an order. To maximize expected profit per customer,
would Seas Beginning make more money canceling
such a customer after six nonorders or four nonorders?

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