The Oceanside Hotel is adjacent to City Coliseum, a 24,000-seat arena that is home to the city’s professional basketball and ice hockey teams and that hosts a variety of concerts, trade shows, and conventions throughout the year. The hotel has experienced the following occupancy rates for the nine years since the coliseum opened:   Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9   Occupancy Rate    75%    70%    72%    77%   83%    81%    86%   91%   87%     Compute an exponential smoothing forecast with α = 0.20, an adjusted exponential smoothing forecast with α = 0.20 and β = 0.20, and a linear trend line forecast. Compare the three forecasts using MAD and average error (?̅), and indicate which forecast seems to be most accurate.

Purchasing and Supply Chain Management
6th Edition
ISBN:9781285869681
Author:Robert M. Monczka, Robert B. Handfield, Larry C. Giunipero, James L. Patterson
Publisher:Robert M. Monczka, Robert B. Handfield, Larry C. Giunipero, James L. Patterson
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Problem 5.1SC: Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing...
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  1. The Oceanside Hotel is adjacent to City Coliseum, a 24,000-seat arena that is home to the city’s professional basketball and ice hockey teams and that hosts a variety of concerts, trade shows, and conventions throughout the year. The hotel has experienced the following occupancy rates for the nine years since the coliseum opened:

 

Year

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

  Occupancy Rate   

75%   

70%   

72%   

77%  

83%   

81%   

86%  

91%  

87%  

 

Compute an exponential smoothing forecast with α = 0.20, an adjusted exponential smoothing forecast with α = 0.20 and β = 0.20, and a linear trend line forecast. Compare the three forecasts using MAD and average error (?̅), and indicate which forecast seems to be most accurate.

 

 

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