Question a. To select a reliable forecast technique that you can use to predict the future sales of your bags based on past sales performances, you have considered two different forecasting techniques - Naïve forecast, and exponential smoothing forecast technique with a smoothing constant of 0.20. Now generate forecast results for all 5 months by using Naïve forecast, and exponential smoothing forecast technique with a smoothing constant of 0.20. b. Now use Mean absolute deviation (MAD) and Mean squared error (MSE), these forecast accuracy or error measurement tools, and determine which forecast technique between Naïve forecast, and exponential forecast techniques gives the lowest forecast error and highest forecast accuracy.
Question
a. To select a reliable forecast technique that you can use to predict the future sales of your bags based
on past sales performances, you have considered two different
and exponential smoothing forecast technique with a smoothing constant of 0.20. Now generate
forecast results for all 5 months by using Naïve forecast, and exponential smoothing forecast technique
with a smoothing constant of 0.20.
b. Now use Mean absolute deviation (MAD) and Mean squared error (MSE), these forecast accuracy or
error measurement tools, and determine which forecast technique between Naïve forecast, and
exponential forecast techniques gives the lowest forecast error and highest forecast accuracy.
![4. Suppose your company has started selling handmade leather bags just a few months ago. The
following table shows the actual sales of the bags for the first 5 months.
Months
Actual sales
Naïve forecast
Exponential smoothing
technique
October (2021)
November (2021)
December (2021)
January (2022)
February (2022)
55
65
63
70
69](/v2/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcontent.bartleby.com%2Fqna-images%2Fquestion%2Ff42bf3d4-b6b9-477c-af97-ecbb81166db3%2F69528893-bd53-44c8-9a7e-9fa490036b2c%2Fpn4af19_processed.png&w=3840&q=75)
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