There are various reasons that prediction of natural gas price is imperative to producers, suppliers, traders, market makers, and bankers involved in natural gas exploration, production, transportation and trading as well as consumers involved in utilization of natural gas (Mishra, 2012). The prices of energy commodity including natural gas price are very volatile that make the parties engaged in a high risk and uncertain activities. More accurate forecast of the price, help them to select an appropriate strategy to lower the uncertainty and hedge the risk. This research attempt to find the best way to model and forecast natural gas price among different approaches and choose the optimum practice to use.
The natural gas price is also important in evaluation of gas reserves (Caldwell & Heather, 1996). The price of gas has huge effect on the value of the reserves which is a massive part of Gas Company’s assets. Fluctuation in gas price make an oscillation in company’s value that increase the investment risk which results a decrease in company’s stock price.
1.1. What is Natural Gas
Natural gas (also called marsh or swamp gas in older texts and more recently Landfill gas) is a combustible mixture of gaseous hydrocarbons consisting of methane as a major component and heavier hydrocarbons including ethane, propane, butanes, and very small amount of pentanes or heavier components (Speight, 2007). The natural gas mixture also includes the unsaturated hydrocarbons such as
In 2016, the crude oil price movement prices were unpredictable. The OPEC reference basket dropped 10 percent to $43.22 per pound. The ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI both went down by 8.4 percent with ICE Brent at $47.08 per pound and NYMEX WTI at $45.76 per pound. This showed that there were uncertainties in the petroleum market. The future prices were predicted for 2017 that it would move higher. The World’s economic growth predictions was the same at 2.9% for 2016 but increased to 3.1% for 2017. Because of the 3rd quarter of 2016 in Japan and US, the OCED growth went from 1.6% to 1.7%. The demand for oil growth in 2016 has been increasing slightly to 1.24 mb/d. In 2017, the demand will be predicted with a decrease to 1.15 mb/d. OECD will
Natural Gas is one of the main sources of energy for many of our daily needs and activities because of the clean, safe, and useful characteristic. Natural gas is colorless,
It turns out that the market for natural gas is a very competitive one and that there is in fact a shortage in supply that is causing the price to increase. Natural gas must be drilled for and there are only a certain number of active companies that drill and they all have a set amount of capital. In the short run the supply of natural gas is very inelastic because they cannot just produce more gas. They would need
In January 2016, the cost of a gallon of gas dropped below two dollars, and consumers were rejoicing. Driving that car with twelve miles to the gallon car wasn’t so bad. Going to the grocery store was a little cheaper because of the transportation costs of goods. Americans could afford a like extra and never wonder about why the gas dropped. We were still hurting from three dollars or more for a gallon. Companies in the United States started drilling for oil on American soil in larger quantities than before two years earlier in 2014. Jobs in the industry were aplenty. Young adults straight out of high school could go into training for a year and come out making six figures by they were twenty-five. The amount of oil produced was
Economic benefits of the natural gas industry are intimately tied to the market price of natural gas – which historically, has demonstrated high volatility. Recently the price for oil and gas has plummeted. While natural gas supplies steadily accumulated in the US, Canada’s main export market, decreasing revenue and profits. This has resulted in consolidation of oil and gas companies, loss in jobs, and delay/cancelling of new projects (e.g., LNG projects on BC’s coast). Given this financial context, the Canadian gas industry needs to streamline their operations (i.e., increase efficiency and productivity) and explore alternative markets by, perhaps, moving methane up the value chain and creating value-added products (i.e., petrochemicals).
Natural gas is a fossil fuel trapped in between rocks and water bodies underground. Natural gas is formed underground from the deposit of organic matter over millions of years. Natural gas from the release of energy trapped in plants and animals. Plants and animals store energy from the sun in the form of carbon in the molecules of the plant or an animal. Once the plants and animals die they release energy from the accumulation of matter and heat. The varying amount of heat and pressure from the different types of biomass results in the formation of different fossils fuels and gas. Fossil fuels and gas move in between the rocks where they are trapped before extraction (Curtis
The Haynesville shale in Louisiana is one of several unconventional gas plays that have been discovered in the U.S. in the past decade and promise to dramatically change the course of future energy development given its enormous resource potential. Unconventional gas resources are abundant, but their development is particularly sensitive to technologic risk, geologic uncertainty, and gas price. To produce at commercial rates, shale gas wells require horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing which significantly increases the capital cost. The purpose of this paper is to examine the price sensitivity of Haynesville wells and the economic viability of the play. We characterize the operating envelope under which Haynesville wells are economic
California has one of the highest gas prices in the United States (Laskoski, usnews.com). However, compared to many developed nations, United States has one of the cheapest gas prices (Hargreaves, CNNMoney.com). Discussion of the reasons gas prices fluctuate is a detailed matter which requires an overview, starting from the extraction of crude oil, chemical processes, regulations, taxes, and gas retail market. The factors that can affect the price at gas station can be categorized into three main categorize including crude commodity prices, technology regulation and taxes, and retail market. As crude oil is the base resource for the production of gasoline (also known as Gas or Petrol, not be confused with Petroleum) its price plays an important
Natural gas is another means of energy source that provides heating and electricity to many individuals. It is a natural mixture of methane, carbon dioxide, nitrogen and hydrogen sulfide. Natural gas was first found back in 1626 when the French found the natives lighting gas seeping in and out of the ground around Lake Erie. When natural gas was first introduced into civilization as a means of energy source it was not efficient nor was it environmentally friendly. It was first in the United States in Baltimore, Maryland in 1816 when it was used to light the street lamps. The first well that was dug for Natural Gas purposes was in 1821 in Fredonia, New York by William Hart. He is known as the “father of natural gas: in
Natural gas is highly flammable matter that can cause notable damage. Natural gas leaks can cause fires or even explosions if they are not handled carefully. It is colorless, tasteless, and odorless.
For the purpose of this report, the commodity selected is natural gas will be discussed but focus will be on shale gas. The time period for analysing the factors affecting demand and supply of the shale gas will be from the 1990’s to date.
Natural gas is a mixture of Hydrocarbon gases that form with a petroleum deposit. A hydrocarbon is a compound that’s mostly made up of Hydrogen and Carbon. Natural gas is methane together with some of ethane, propane, butane, and other gases, Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, and Ethane is colorless and odorless. Natural gas is used as fuel and in the making of organic compounds. Natural gas is also highly flammable. (The American Heritage Dictionary, 2009)
Natural gas is very popular it was oversold and bounced backwards not unexpected . How is natural gas prices caused to go up? Well it all starts by weather , If it is colder than normal weather there are many parts in the united states that there is a lightning which causes a fire under natural gas and that makes the prices go up. Also for a good amount of time, there has been fuel switching by natural gas prices
Natural gas is a hydrocarbon gas that occurs naturally on earth, consisting mainly of methane, some carbon dioxide, nitrogen, hydrogen sulfide, and other higher alkanes hydrocarbons. Natural gas is found in rock formations deep underground. It occurs in abundance in the united states, extending from Ohio and West Virginia into Pennsylvania and New York. Natural gas is extracted by a technique called hydraulic fracturing. While this technique is economically feasible with the rising need, demand, and prices of energy sources, hydrofracking produces a lot of waste products with side effects and detrimental effects to humans and the environment caused by the materials used, such as cancer, earthquakes and pollution.
It is a hydrocarbon gas that liquefies through the use of pressure. During the processing of natural gas, the propane is the unprocessed natural gas that is separated with the use of refrigeration.