A store is evaluating two options: expand to a new location stay and do nothing in current place for the next five years The decision process includes the following: Moving to the new site:  would cost $500,000 annual returns with strong growth = $3 million; with weak growth = $2 million Doing nothing: annual returns with strong growth = $2 million; with weak growth = $1.5 million Strong growth has a 70% probability and operating costs for all other options are equal. Draw a decision tree of the problem and determine the best solution with highest expected value.

Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
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A store is evaluating two options:

  • expand to a new location
  • stay and do nothing in current place for the next five years

The decision process includes the following:

  • Moving to the new site: 
    • would cost $500,000
    • annual returns with strong growth = $3 million; with weak growth = $2 million
  • Doing nothing:
    • annual returns with strong growth = $2 million; with weak growth = $1.5 million

Strong growth has a 70% probability and operating costs for all other options are equal.

Draw a decision tree of the problem and determine the best solution with highest expected value.   

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