Considering the following decision tree, what is the EV at node 3? Assume the payoffs are COST values. **Enter the number only** P(F) = 0.6 P(U) = 0.4 P(s1 | F) = 0.75 P(s1 | U) =0.55 P(s2 | F) = 0.25 P(s2 | U) = 0.45 P(s1) = 0.7 P(S2) = 0.3 Market Research No Market Research F D d₁ d d. d 5₁ 5₁ 5₂ S₁ 5₂ S₁ 5₂ 5₁ رک 5₂ 100 300 400 200 100 300 400 200 100 300 400 200
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- 2. A toy manufacturer has three different mechanisms that can be installed in a doll that it sells. The different mechanisms have three different setup costs (overheads) and variable costs and, therefore, the profit from the dolls is dependent on the volume of sales. The anticipated payoffs are as follows. Light Demand 0.25 $325,000 $300,000 -$400,000 Heavy Demand 0.3 Probability Wind-up action Pneumatic action Electrical action Moderate Demand 0.45 $190,000 $420,000 S170,000 $400,000 $800,000 $240,000 a. What is the EMV of each decision alternative? b. Which action should be selected? c. What is the expected value with perfect information? d. What is the expected value of perfect information? e. What is the expected opportunity loss?Given the following decision tree, calculate the EMV and the best decision that should be made. Office Growth BUILD EXPAND a. EMV: $393000; Decision: Build Ob. EMV: $522000; Decision: Build OC. EMV: $915000; Decision Expand and Build Od EMV: $393000; Decision: Expand High Demand Low Demand High Demand Low Demand 60% Probability $650,000 Impact 40% Probability $330,000 Impact 70% Probability $510,000 Impact 30% Probability $120,000 ImpactLeo Fattel, a toy manufacturer, has three different mechanisms that can be installed in a doll that it sells. The different mechanisms have three different setup costs (overheads) and variable costs and, therefore, the profit from the dolls is dependent on the volume of sales. The anticipated payoffs are as follows. The anticipated payoffs are as follows. What is the expected value of perfect information? Light Demand Moderate Demand Heavy Demand Probability 0.25 0.45 0.3 Wind-up action $325,000 $190,000 $170,000 Pneumatic action $300,000 $420,000 $400,000 Electrical action -$400,000 $240,000 $800,000 Group of answer choices
- c. From the following decision tree, develop a payoff table and calculate: * Maximax, Minimax regret, Maximin, and EMV. ORs. 50,000 Good conditions (0.60) Poor conditions (0.40) -O Rs. 30,000 Apartment Building Good conditions (0.60) O Rs. 100,000 Office building Poor conditions (0.40) Purchase ORs -40,000 Warchouse Good conditions (0.60) Rs.30, 000 Poor conditions (0.40) O Rs. 10,000Company QXL has generated $1 million in gross sales for Q4, 2021, which is 5% higher than its gross sales for Q3, 2021. However, Q4 is considered as the peak season for QXL. Comparing with the previous peak season, its current Q4 gross sales are 2% lower than the gross sales for Q4 2020. When a client asks Winona (who is a financial planner) for investment advice on QXL, Winona suggests the client to invest in QXL. She only presents the percentage change in gross sales from Q3 to Q4 2021 (i.e. 5% increase) and tells the clients that this is a positive signal of increase in its future price. You are required to establish what is unethical and which Standard is most likely violated.A local toy manufacturer has three different mechanisms that can be installed in a doll that it sells. The different mechanisms have three different setup costs (overheads) and variable costs and, therefore, the profit from the dolls is dependent on the volume of sales. The anticipated payoffs are as follows: Light Demand Moderate Demand Heavy Demand Probability 0.25 0.45 0.3 Wind-up action $325,000 $190,000 $170,000 Pneumatic action $300,000 $420,000 $400,000 Electrical action -$400,000 $240,000 $800,000 What is the ultimate objective in the use of decision trees to product design? How is this objective accomplished? Draw the decision tree. What is the EMV of each decision alternative? Which action should be selected?
- North Pole Toys needs to decide on their newest product line for Christmas. They narrowed their options to two possibilities: Product A would incur a fixed cost of $3,000 and a variable cost of $6 per unit and sells for $7.50; Product B would incur a fixed cost of $1,200 and a variable cost of $9 per unit and sells for $10. __________4a. What is the breakeven point for each of the two products? __________4b. What is the point of indifference between the two products?3. A toy manufacturer makes stuffed kittens and puppies which have relatively lifelike motions. There are three different mechanisms that can be installed in these "pets." These toys will sell for the same price regardless of the mechanism installed, but each mechanism has its own variable cost and setup cost. Profit, therefore, is dependent upon the choice of mechanism and upon the level of demand. The manufacturer has in hand a forecast of demand that suggests a 0.2 probability of light demand, a 0.45 probability of moderate demand, and a probability of 0.35 of heavy demand. Payoffs for each mechanism-demand combination appear in the table below. Wind-up action Pneumatic action Electronic action Demand Light Moderate $250,000 $90,000 -$100,000 400,000 440,000 400,000 Heavy 650,000 740,000 780,000 Construct the appropriate decision tree to analyze this problem. Use standard symbols for the tree. Analyze the tree to select the optimal decision for the manufacturer.Payoff Table Decision Alternatives Demand Low Medium High Small, d1 400 500 600 Medium, d2 100 600 800 Large, d3 -300 400 1200 1). If nothing is known about the demand probabilities, what are the recommended decision using the Maximax (optimistic), Maximin (pessimistic) and Equally Likely? 2). If P(low) = 0.20, P(medium) = 0.35, and P(high) = 0.45. What is the recommended decision using the expected monetary value approach? 3). What is the expected value of perfect information (EVPI)?
- Suppose we are considering the question of how much capacity to build in the face of uncertain demand. Assume that the cost is $20 per unit of lost sales due to insufficient capacity. Also assume that there is a cost of $7 for each unit of capacity built. The probability of various demand levels is as follows: Demand—X Units Probability of X 0 .05 1 .10 2 .15 3 .20 4 .20 5 .15 6 .10 7 .05 a. How many units of capacity should be built to minimize the total cost of providing capacity plus lost sales? b. State a…* 00 T 35 R Miles used the information on the table to develop a Decision Tree for this situation and indicate which type of truck should he select. What would Miles's decision be based on Baye's Decision Rule? $16,000 3. $19,000 2 $21,000 $15,000 .5 Compact 000'0 000 $24,000 2. Full-size .2 000 0 Subcompact Can't be determined with the information provided Compact All of the answer choices are correct Full size MacBook Air 000 000 DD F7 F2 F3 F5 F8 F4 & $ 9. 7. 4. J KLakewood Fashions must decide how many lots of assorted ski wear to order for its three stores. Information on pricing, sales, and inventory costs has led to the following payoff table, in thousands. Order size Low 2 lots 1 lot 1 lot 3 lots (a) Show a regret table. Order size 2 lots 3 lots 11 9 6 Low Demand Medium 16 24 36 High 16 36 64 Demand Medium (b) What decision should be made by the optimist? O 1 lot O2 lots 3 lots (c) What decision should be made by the conservative? O 1 lot O2 lots 3 lots (d) What decision should be made using minimax regret? O 1 lot O2 lots O3 lots High Maximum Regret