Suppose we are considering the question of how much capacity to build in the face of uncertain demand. Assume that the cost is $20 per unit of lost sales due to insufficient capacity. Also assume that there is a cost of $7 for each unit of capacity built. The probability of various demand levels is as follows: Demand—X Units                   Probability of X 0                                                          .05 1                                                          .10 2                                                          .15 3                                                           .20 4                                                           .20 5                                                           .15 6                                                           .10 7                                                           .05 a. How many units of capacity should be built to minimize the total cost of providing capacity plus lost sales? b. State a general rule regarding the amount of capacity to build. c. What principle does this problem illustrate?

Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 46P
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Suppose we are considering the question of how much capacity to build in the face of uncertain demand. Assume that the cost is $20 per unit of lost sales due to insufficient capacity. Also assume that there is a cost of $7 for each unit of capacity built. The probability of various demand levels is as follows:
Demand—X Units                   Probability of X
0                                                          .05
1                                                          .10
2                                                          .15
3                                                           .20
4                                                           .20
5                                                           .15
6                                                           .10
7                                                           .05
a. How many units of capacity should be built to minimize the total cost of providing capacity plus lost sales?
b. State a general rule regarding the amount of capacity to build.
c. What principle does this problem illustrate?

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