Question 1 A firm uses simple exponential smoothing with "a = 0.6" to forecast demand. The forecast for the 1st week of January was 498 units whereas the actual demand turned out to be 445 units. Calculate the demand forecast for the 2nd week. note: write the number with at most 2 decimal places without the unit (eg. 75.17 and NOT Php 75.17)
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- Question 3: Jane is trying to forecast demand for her store, using moving average with n=2, Fill in the missing cells with correct values and find average error for first quarter and second quarter of year 2000 E Enroll- Year Quarter ment Forecast Error Abs Error 1997 313 3. 2 285 4 3 312 5. 4 339 6. 1998 1 359 7 320 356 385 6. 10 1999 396 367 11 397 12 423 13 14 2000 1 15 2000 3412M4QUESTIONS: Quarterly demand for a washing machine is as shown. 1. After obtaining initial estimates for level, trend, and seasonal factors. forecast the demand for the first quarter of year III using Winter's model with a 6- - 0,25 where x is the last two digits of your student number. 2. Make a tracking signal analysis for the forecast and evaluate Maks Year I II Quarter 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 Demand 1900 1224 4000 5600 4800 1048 6200 8000Part C Exponential Exponential Gasoline Demand Gasoline Month smoothed forecast smoothed forecast Exponential smoothed forecast (a = 0.25) Demand (a = 0.25) (a = 0.45) Exponential smoothed forecast (a = 0.45) Mar 900 920 920 1200 Apr May 755 915.00 911.00 1100 1000 650 875.00 840.80 g20 915.00 846 80 755 818.75 754.94 904.76 835.12 Jun 550 818.75 754.94 800 320 751.56 66272 645.74 746.83 Jul 625 751.56 662.72 650 600 550 Aug Sep 730 719.92 645.74 820 722.44 683.66 400 D Oct 1100 746.83 745.01 200 1 Nov 835.12 904.76 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 1. Make a comparative analysis out of your answers in the plotted data. (3-5 5 sentences)
- Question 1 ) The monthiy sales Of yamizí Battery company are asfollows:- Month Jales 2000 2100 1500 1400 1300 Calcuiate fore cost sales for June using each of the fo llowing method: - i) Naive Method 1M 3 Month Simple moving averoger Ti) Exponentral smoothing using an a =0:3 cand may forecast of 1600 units.Q.No.04. What does BOM stands for? Why it is necessary for any firm to have correct forecast of BOM?← Given an actual demand this period of 100, a forecast value for this period of 110, and an alpha of 0.84, what is the exponential smoothing forecast for next period? (Round answer to the nearest whole number.) O A. 102 OB. 108 O C. 92 OD. 100 OE. 110
- If the forecasted value of the time series variable for one period is 28.5 and the actual value observed for the same period is 32, what is the forecast error for that period? Question 19 options: 3.5 2 -3.5 4The moving average forecast method should only be used with time series data demonstrating a linear trend. Question 17 options: True FalseGiven November actual demand of 61, November forecast of 58, and an alpha of 0.4, November trend value +1.03, Beta of 0.3 what would the forecast including trend (FIT) for the December period be using exponential smoothing model 2? Select one: a. 62.03 b. cannot be found c. 68.76 d. 65.72
- Month Demand Forecast Error Abs Error alpha 1 20 2 18 3 21 4 25 5 24 6 27 7 22 8 30 9 23 10 20 11 29 12 22 Mean Bias MAD (mean error) Problem 6: Maverick Jeans' demand manager decided to evaluate exponential smoothing. To maintain com- parability, she used the data from problem 6, copied below. 1 Month 2 3 Demand 20 18 21 25 4 5 24 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 27 22 30 23 20 29 22 Develop forecasts for months 5-12. Calculate the Bias and MAD. Use a starting forecast of 20 for month 4 and an alpha value of 0.2. (Note: Adjust all cell values to two decimal points.)Question 2 Mr. Ferdinand is a well known entrepreneur who sells fresh organic beef to persons in the local community. Customers love the quality of meet that Mr. Ferdinand sells so they tend to recommend his product to other persons. Recently, Mr. Ferdinand has been rumning out of beef to sell to his customers. One customer suggests to him that he must use past sales records to forecast demand for his beef so that he can meet his customers demand. Using a numerical example, demonstrate to Mr. Ferdinand how he can use a three- week and a four-week weighted moving average to forecast demand for his beef. I. II. Show how Mr. Ferdinand can test the accuracy of his forecast. III. Explain to Mr. Ferdinand two ways in which he can benefit from doing forecast for his beef. 日正QUESTION 2:The manager of YTL Computers wants to develop next year’s quarterly forecasts of salesrevenue for its brand laptops. The sales are seasonal and the company believes that thefollowing most recent eight quarters of sales should be representative of next year’ssales: Year Quarter Sales (millions of dollars) 1 1 9.2 1 2 5.4 1 3 4.3 1 4 14.1 2 1 10.3 2 2 6.4 2 3 5.4 2 4 16.0 Determine the forecast of next year’s quarterly sales revenue for this line of laptops.Show all your workings.