The decision matrix shown consists of cost elements. Determine the alternative to be chosen using the following principles of choice: Laplace, minimax, minimin and Hurwicz with a = 0.4. Alternatives States of Nature S2 P36 S3 P24 S4 P17 A1 P25 A2 P40 P19 P28 Р36 A3 Р35 P21 P33 P27 A4 Р30 P29 P15 P23
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- Payoff Table Decision Alternatives Demand Low Medium High Small, d1 400 500 600 Medium, d2 100 600 800 Large, d3 -300 400 1200 1). If nothing is known about the demand probabilities, what are the recommended decision using the Maximax (optimistic), Maximin (pessimistic) and Equally Likely? 2). If P(low) = 0.20, P(medium) = 0.35, and P(high) = 0.45. What is the recommended decision using the expected monetary value approach? 3). What is the expected value of perfect information (EVPI)?Is price an important evaluative criterion? What decision rule is applied to the evaluative criteria used? Is price likely to serve as a surrogate indicator of quality?eferring to the pay-off table, determine which alternative would be chosen under each of these strategies: Possible future demand in OMR Alternative Low Medium High A 12 15 15 B 10 13 16 C 6 8 19 For the data in above table, assume probabilities of: (low demand) = 0.15, (medium demand) = 0.55, and (high demand) = 0.3. Using a Minimax regret approach the value of the lowest regret is. (Write the number only)
- (b) Demand history of five different products of a company is shown below. Products 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 A 37 40 41 45 49 26 34 30 26 23 33 28 32 C 58 55 32 38 45 56 62 70 77 86 95 83 88 81 92 85 i. Name the methods that is suitable to forecast the demand of the above five products? ii. Forecast demand of the product B or D with error for the year 2021. If you need a value of a then consider it 0.7.XYZ work in a small electric business in Basrah city. He had a sunshine controller device. He had to decide how to market his idea, and in the short term, his options could be summarised as selling the device locally, selling nationally through a website, entering a partnership with an existing company or selling the patent. His returns depended on demand, which he described as high, medium, or low. Using this simple model, he developed the matrix of potential annual gains shown below: Options Demand High Medium Low Market locally 60 90 45 Use website 23 90 78 Partnership 12 25 89 Sell patent 30 30 30 Identify the decision taken under the following approaches: (1) Equal probability (2) Regret (3) Hurwicz criterion. Note: The decision maker's degree of Pessimistic (a) is 0.3.I want to answer to solve ㅠㅠㅠㅠ. Q1. A builder has located a piece of property that she would like to but and eventually build on. The land is currently zoned for four homes per acre, but she is planning to request new zoning. What she builds depends on approval of zoning requests and your analysis of this problem to advise her. With her input and your help, the decision process has been reduced to the following costs, alternatives, and probabilities Cost of land $2 MillionProbability of rezoning .6If the land is rezoned, there will be additional costs for new roads, lighting, and so on of $1 million. If the land is rezoned, the contractor must decide whether to build a shopping center or 1,500 apartments that the tentative plan shows would be possible. If she builds a shopping center, there is a 70% chance that she can sell the shopping center to a large department store chin for $4 million over her construction cost, which excludes the land; and there is a 30% chance that she can…
- Write the three-point estimates for the six key input variables?The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): Decision State of Nature Alternative Low Demand (S1) Medium Demand (S2) High Demand )S3) Manufacture, d(1) -20 40 100 Purchase, d(2) 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P s1= 0.35, P s2= 0.35, and P s3= 0.30 Use expected value to recommend a decision.Columbus grocery store faces demand for freshly squeezed pomegranate juice. The daily demand for freshly squeezed juice ranges from 10 to 20 gallons. The grocery store offers the juice in a special 1 gallon bottle. Each gallon costs $8 to make and is sold for $15. Any juice that is not sold by the end of the day can all be sold to a local food processor for $5. Compute the decision rule ratio using the marginal analysis (rounding it to two decimal places). 0.53 O0.47 O 0.50 O 0.30 O0.70
- The following payoff table shows the profit for a decision problem with two states of nature and two decision alternatives. Decision Alternative State of Nature $1 d₁ d₂ (a) Suppose P(s₁) = 0.2 and P(5₂) = 0.8. What is the best decision using the expected value approach? The best decision is --?-- with an expected value of 12 $₂ 6 3 5 (b) Perform sensitivity analysis on the payoffs for decision alternative d₂. Assume the probabilities are as given in part (a), and find the range of payoffs under states of natures, and so that will keep the solution found in part (a) optimal. As long as the payoff for s₁ under d₁ is --?-- , then the solution found in part (a) will be optimal. then the solution found in part (a) will be optimal. As long as the payoff for s₂ under d₁ is --?-- Is the solution more sensitive to the payoff under state of nature s₁ or 5₂? O $₁ 0 5₂b) Perform Goal Seek Analysis in Excel, Technique of Model Driven Decision Support System. Using goal seek analysis technique of Model Driven Decision Support System, predict the number of pizza to be sold in a day to achieve the total income of Rs 272000/= while excluding all expenses like cost per Pizza (RS. 1000), salary per person (Rs. 1000 per day) we have 3 employees, shop rent per day (Rs. 2000) and 5% Tax. Price of a pizza is fixed to Rs 2500. Formulas on answer sheet as well.Eastan Publishing Company is considering publishing an electronic textbook about spreadsheet applications for business. The fixed cost of manuscript preparation, textbook design, and web-site construction is estimated to be $150,000. Variable processing costs are estimated to be $7 per book. The publisher plans to sell single-user access to the book for $49. Through a series of web-based experiments, Eastman has created a predictive model that estimates demand as a function of price. The predictive model is demand = 4,000 - 6p, where p is the price of the e-book. (a) Build a spreadsheet model to calculate the profit/loss for a given demand. What is the demand? (b) Use Goal Seek to calculate the price that results in breakeven. If required, round your answer to two decimal places. (c) Use a data table that varies price from $50 to $400 in increments of $25 to find the price that maximizes profit. If Eastman sells the single-user access to the electronic book at a price of S it will earn…