The following data show the number of liters of gasoline sold by Mackrin's in Colorado for the past 12 weeks. Which forecasting model would you recommend to Mackrin's manager? Why? What demand forecast would you recommend for week 13? Week Actual Demand (1000 liters) Forecasting (1000 liters) FSMA /A-F/ FWMA /A-F/ FES, α=0.3 /A-F/ 1 17 2 21 17 4 3 19 18.2 0.8 4 23 19 4 18.44 4.56 5 18 21 3 20.8 2.8 19.81 1.81 6 16 20 4 20 4 19.3 3.3 7 20 19 1 18.3 2.3 18.31 1.69 8 18 18 0 18.7 0.7 18.82 0.82 9 22 18 4 18.2 4.2 18.6 3.4 10 20 20 0 19.8 0.2 19.62 0.38 11 15 20 5 20.2 5.2 19.73 4.73 12 22 19 3 18.2 3.8 18.3 3.7 13 19 19.5 19.41 MAD 2.67 2.9 2.7 MSE 10.22 11.1 9.4 MAPE 14.36% 16.01% 15.1%
The following data show the number of liters of gasoline sold by Mackrin's in Colorado for the past 12 weeks. Which forecasting model would you recommend to Mackrin's manager? Why? What demand forecast would you recommend for week 13? Week Actual Demand (1000 liters) Forecasting (1000 liters) FSMA /A-F/ FWMA /A-F/ FES, α=0.3 /A-F/ 1 17 2 21 17 4 3 19 18.2 0.8 4 23 19 4 18.44 4.56 5 18 21 3 20.8 2.8 19.81 1.81 6 16 20 4 20 4 19.3 3.3 7 20 19 1 18.3 2.3 18.31 1.69 8 18 18 0 18.7 0.7 18.82 0.82 9 22 18 4 18.2 4.2 18.6 3.4 10 20 20 0 19.8 0.2 19.62 0.38 11 15 20 5 20.2 5.2 19.73 4.73 12 22 19 3 18.2 3.8 18.3 3.7 13 19 19.5 19.41 MAD 2.67 2.9 2.7 MSE 10.22 11.1 9.4 MAPE 14.36% 16.01% 15.1%
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter13: Regression And Forecasting Models
Section13.7: Exponential Smoothing Models
Problem 26P: The file P13_26.xlsx contains the monthly number of airline tickets sold by the CareFree Travel...
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The following data show the number of liters of gasoline sold by Mackrin's in Colorado for the past 12 weeks.
- Which
forecasting model would you recommend to Mackrin's manager? Why? - What demand forecast would you recommend for week 13?
|
Week |
Actual Demand (1000 liters) |
Forecasting (1000 liters) |
|||||
|
FSMA |
/A-F/ |
FWMA |
/A-F/ |
FES, α=0.3 |
/A-F/ |
||
|
1 |
17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
21 |
|
|
|
|
17 |
4 |
|
3 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
18.2 |
0.8 |
|
4 |
23 |
19 |
4 |
|
|
18.44 |
4.56 |
|
5 |
18 |
21 |
3 |
20.8 |
2.8 |
19.81 |
1.81 |
|
6 |
16 |
20 |
4 |
20 |
4 |
19.3 |
3.3 |
|
7 |
20 |
19 |
1 |
18.3 |
2.3 |
18.31 |
1.69 |
|
8 |
18 |
18 |
0 |
18.7 |
0.7 |
18.82 |
0.82 |
|
9 |
22 |
18 |
4 |
18.2 |
4.2 |
18.6 |
3.4 |
|
10 |
20 |
20 |
0 |
19.8 |
0.2 |
19.62 |
0.38 |
|
11 |
15 |
20 |
5 |
20.2 |
5.2 |
19.73 |
4.73 |
|
12 |
22 |
19 |
3 |
18.2 |
3.8 |
18.3 |
3.7 |
|
13 |
|
19 |
|
19.5 |
|
19.41 |
|
|
MAD |
|
|
2.67 |
|
2.9 |
|
2.7 |
|
MSE |
|
|
10.22 |
|
11.1 |
|
9.4 |
|
MAPE |
|
|
14.36% |
|
16.01% |
|
15.1% |
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