The University of Miami bookstore stocks textbooks in preparation for sales each semester. It normally relies on departmental forecasts andpreregistration records to determine how many copies of a text are needed. Preregistration shows 85 operations management students enrolled, butbookstore manager Vaidy Jayaraman has second thoughts, based on his intuition and some historical evidence. Vaidy believes that the distributionof sales may range from 65 to 85 units, according to the following probability model:DemandProbability650.05Stock6570758085700.25This textbook costs the bookstore $82 and sells for $107. Any unsold copies can be returned to the publisher, less a restocking fee and shipping,for a net refund of $30.a) Based on the given information, Vaidy's conditional profits table for the bookstore is:Demand75P=0.3065P = 0.05000070P = 0.25750.30☐☐☐☐800.15000008085P = 0.15 P = 0.2530000850.25☐☐☐☐

A probability model decision analysis is a framework used to make decisions under uncertainty by…

Answered: The University of Miami bookstore…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 30P

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Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. Is Ben Gibson acting legally? Is he acting ethically? Why or why not?
Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. As the Marketing Manager for Southeastern Corrugated, what would you do upon receiving the request for quotation from Coastal Products?
Assume the demand for a companys drug Wozac during the current year is 50,000, and assume demand will grow at 5% a year. If the company builds a plant that can produce x units of Wozac per year, it will cost 16x. Each unit of Wozac is sold for 3. Each unit of Wozac produced incurs a variable production cost of 0.20. It costs 0.40 per year to operate a unit of capacity. Determine how large a Wozac plant the company should build to maximize its expected profit over the next 10 years.
The Tinkan Company produces one-pound cans for the Canadian salmon industry. Each year the salmon spawn during a 24-hour period and must be canned immediately. Tinkan has the following agreement with the salmon industry. The company can deliver as many cans as it chooses. Then the salmon are caught. For each can by which Tinkan falls short of the salmon industrys needs, the company pays the industry a 2 penalty. Cans cost Tinkan 1 to produce and are sold by Tinkan for 2 per can. If any cans are left over, they are returned to Tinkan and the company reimburses the industry 2 for each extra can. These extra cans are put in storage for next year. Each year a can is held in storage, a carrying cost equal to 20% of the cans production cost is incurred. It is well known that the number of salmon harvested during a year is strongly related to the number of salmon harvested the previous year. In fact, using past data, Tinkan estimates that the harvest size in year t, Ht (measured in the number of cans required), is related to the harvest size in the previous year, Ht1, by the equation Ht = Ht1et where et is normally distributed with mean 1.02 and standard deviation 0.10. Tinkan plans to use the following production strategy. For some value of x, it produces enough cans at the beginning of year t to bring its inventory up to x+Ht, where Ht is the predicted harvest size in year t. Then it delivers these cans to the salmon industry. For example, if it uses x = 100,000, the predicted harvest size is 500,000 cans, and 80,000 cans are already in inventory, then Tinkan produces and delivers 520,000 cans. Given that the harvest size for the previous year was 550,000 cans, use simulation to help Tinkan develop a production strategy that maximizes its expected profit over the next 20 years. Assume that the company begins year 1 with an initial inventory of 300,000 cans.
A manager would like to know the total cost of a chase strategy that matches the forecast belowusing a steady regular production rate of 200 units a month, a maximum of 20 units per month ofovertime, and subcontracting as needed to make up any shortages. The unit costs are:Regular production = $35Overtime = $70Subcontracting = $80Month 1 2 3 4 5 6Forecast 230 200 240 240 250 240
A manager uses a trend equation plus quarterly relatives to predict demand. Quarter relatives are SR₁ = 0.9, SR₂ = 0.95, SR3 = 1.05, and SR₁ =1.1, The trend equation is: Fr=9+ 41. Over the past nine quarters, demand has been as follows: Period, t: Demand: Click here for the Excel Data File Compute the MAD and tracking signal for each period. (Negative values should be indicated by a minus sign. Round your intermediate calculations and final answers to 3 decimal places.) Period, t 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 В 9 14 18 20 22 28 30 36 42 45 89 Demand 14 18 20 22 28 30 36 42 45 MAD Tracking signal
The following is the forecasted demand for Olives Company over the next few months. Month Forecasted Demand Jan 9025 Feb 9000 Mar 9450 Apr 9830 May 9630 Jun 10100 Olives Company is considering using a pure chase strategy. The company has an inventory balance of 300 units and a work force capable of making 9000 units at the beginning of January. Stockout cost due to loss sale is estimated to be $800 per unit. Monthly inventory holding cost are $20 per unit. Olives estimates that adding capacity will cost $75 per unit and firing capacity will cost $50 per unit. Under this plan which of the following is true. O Olives will have inventory cost at the end of January of $5500 O Olives will spend $500 on hiring at the beginning of January O Olives will spend $13,750 on firing at the beginning of January Olives will need to use overtime in April, May and June O Olives holding cost will be be a total of $11000 for the entire plan O None of the other answers are correct
A manager uses a trend equation plus quarterly relatives to predict demand. Quarter relatives are SR1 = 0.9, SR2 = 0.95, SR3 = 1.05, and SR4 = 1.1. The trend equation is: Ft = 6 + 4t. Over the past nine quarters, demand has been as follows: Period, t: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Demand: 11 15 17 22 28 32 36 39 43 Compute the MAD and tracking signal for each period. (Negative values should be indicated by a minus sign. Round your intermediate calculations and final answers to 3 decimal places.) Period, t Demand MAD Tracking signal 1 11 2 15 3 17 4 22 5 28 6 32 7 36 8 39 9 43
Thinking tools service assembles customized personal computers from generic parts. Formed and operated by part-time Svci students paulette cruz and maureen luis, the company has had steady growth since it started. The company assembles computers mostly at night, using part time students. Paulette and Maureen purchase generic computer parts in volume at a discount from a variety of sources whenever they see a good deal. Thus, they need a good forecast of demand for their computers so that they will know how many parts to purchase and stock. They have compiled demand data for the last 12 months as reported below A. Use exponential smoothing with smoothing parameter a=0.2 to compute the demand forecast for january (period 13) B. Use exponential smoothing with smoothing parameter a=0.5 to compute the demand forecast for january (period 13). C. Paulette believes that there is an upward trend in the demand, the initial forecast is 37 and the trend over this period is 0 units. Use…
The University of Miami bookstore stocks textbooks in preparation for sales each semester. It normally relies on departmental forecasts and preregistration records to determine how many copies of a text are needed. Preregistration shows 85 operations management students enrolled, but bookstore manager Vaidy Jayaraman has second thoughts, based on his intuition and some historical evidence. Vaidy believes that the distribution of sales may range from 65 to 85 units, according to the following probability model: Demand Probability 65 0.10 Stock 70 0.30 65 This textbook costs the bookstore $82 and sells for $112. Any unsold copies can be returned to the publisher, less a restocking fee and shipping, for a net refund of $30. a) Based on the given information, Vaidy's conditional profits table for the bookstore is: 65 p=0.10 75 0.20 70 p=0.30 80 0.10 Demand 75 p=0.20 80 p = 0.10 85 p=0.30 85 0.30
The University of Miami bookstore stocks textbooks in preparation for sales each semester. It normally relies on departmental forecasts and preregistration records to determine how many copies of a text are needed. Preregistration shows 85 operations management students enrolled, but bookstore manager Vaidy Jayaraman has second thoughts, based on his intuition and some historical evidence. Vaidy believes that the distribution of sales may range from 65 to 85 units, according to the following probability model: Demand 65 70 75 80 85 Stock 0.1 0.25 0.2 0.1 0.35 This textbook costs the bookstore $70 and sells for $95 Any unsold copies can be returned to the publisher, less a restocking fee and shipping, for a net refund o $30. a) Based on the given information, Vaidy's conditional profits table for the bookstore is: Demand 65 70 75 80 85 Stock 0.1 0.25 0.2 0.1 0.35 65 ? ? ? ? ?
Year Month Actual Orders/Demands 2020 Apr 120 May 90 Jun 100 Jul 75 Aug 110 Sep 50 Oct 75 Nov 130 Dec 110 2021 Jan 90 Feb

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