Chapter 12.3, Problem 31E

Using data from a national survey, the authors of the paper “What Do Happy People Do?” (Social Indicators Research [2008]: 565-571) concluded that there was convincing evidence of an association between amount of time spent watching television and whether or not a person reported that they were happy. They observed that unhappy people tended to watch more television. The authors write:]

This could lead us to two possible interpretations:

1. 1. Television viewing is a pleasurable enough activity with no lasting benefit, and it pushes aside time spent in other activities—ones that might be less immediately pleasurable, but that would provide long-term benefits in one's condition. In other words, television does cause people to be less happy.
2. 2. Television is a refuge for people who are already unhappy. TV is not judgmental nor difficult, so people with few social skills or resources for other activities can engage in it. Furthermore, chronic unhappiness can be socially and personally debilitating and can interfere with work and most social and personal activities, but even the unhappiest people can click a remote and be passively entertained by a TV. In other words, the causal order is reversed for people who watch television; unhappiness leads to television viewing.

Using only data from this study, is it possible to determine which of these two conclusions is correct? If so, which conclusion is correct and why? If not, explain why it is not possible to decide which conclusion is correct based on the study data.