Compute the EVPI 2- Determine the range over which each alternative would be best in terms of the value of P ( low demand )
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A firm that plans to expand its product line must decide whether to build a small or a large facility
to produce the new products. If it builds a small facility and demand is low, the
after deducting for building costs will be $400,000. If demand is high, the firm can either maintain
the small facility or expand it. Expansion would have a net present value of $450,000, and maintaining the small facility would have a net present value of $50,000.
If a large facility is built and demand is high, the estimated net present value is $800,000. If demand
turns out to be low, the net present value will be – $10,000.
The probability that demand will be high is estimated to be .60, and the probability of low demand
is estimated to be .40.
1- Compute the EVPI
2- Determine the range over which each alternative would be best in terms of the value of P ( low demand )
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- A firm that plans to expand its product line must decide whether to build a small or a large facilityto produce the new products. If it builds a small facility and demand is low, the net present valueafter deducting for building costs will be $400,000. If demand is high, the firm can either maintainthe small facility or expand it. Expansion would have a net present value of $450,000, and maintaining the small facility would have a net present value of $50,000.If a large facility is built and demand is high, the estimated net present value is $800,000. If demandturns out to be low, the net present value will be – $10,000.The probability that demand will be high is estimated to be .60, and the probability of low demandis estimated to be .40.a. Analyze using a tree diagram.The owner of a greenhouse and nursery is considering whether to spend $6,000 to acquire the licensing rights to grow a new variety of rosebush, which she could then sell for $6 each. Per-unit variable cost would be $3. What would the profit be if she were to produce and sell 5,000 rosebushes?What would be the best way to estimate whether a piece of land could be used to manage an existing (at a profit) in the relatively short- and long-run? Explain what information you would need to make the decision what would be a “Second best” alternative to the criteria you picked first?
- Suppose that an aircraft manufacturer desires to make a preliminary estimate of the cost of building a 600-MW fossil-fuel plant for the assembly of its new long-distance aircraft. It is known that a 200-MW plant cost $100 million 20 years ago when the approximate cost index was 400, and that cost index is now 1,200. The cost-capacity factor for a fossil-fuel power plant is 0.79.II. + James Scott is considering the possibility of opening a small outfit shop on Sta. Maria District, a few blocks from St. Green Ville College. She has located on a mall that attracts students. To open a small shop, medium sized shop, or no shop at all are her options. The market can be good, average, or bad. The probabilities for these three possibilities are 30% for good market, 50% for an average market, and 20% for bad market. The profit or loss for the said market conditions are given in the table below; ALTERNATIVE Small Shop Medium Sized Shop No Shop GOOD 150,000 200,000 0 AVERAGE 50,000 70,000 0 a) Calculate the Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) b) What do you recommend? BAD -80,000 -120,000 0The owner of a greenhouse and nursery is considering whether to spend $6,000 to acquire the licensing rights to grow a new variety of rosebush, which she could then sell for $6 each. Per-unit variable cost would be $3. How many rosebushes would she have to produce and sell in order to break even?
- Civil engineering consulting fi rms that provide ser-vices to outlying communities are vulnerable to a number of factors that affect the fi nancial conditionof the communities, such as bond issues and real estate developments. A small consulting fi rm en-tered into a fi xed-price contract with a large devel-oper, resulting in a stable income of $260,000 per year in years 1 through 3. At the end of that time, a mild recession slowed the development, so the par-ties signed another contract for $190,000 per year for 2 more years. Determine the present worth of thetwo contracts at an interest rate of 10% per year.Hemmingway, Inc., is considering a $5 million research and development (R&D) project. Profit projections appear promising, but Hemmingway's president is concerned because the probability that the R&D project will be successful is only 0.50. Furthermore, the president knows that even if the project is successful, it will require that the company build a new production facility at a cost of $20 million in order to manufacture the product. If the facility is built, uncertainty remains about the demand and thus uncertainty about the profit that will be realized. Another option is that if the R&D project is successful, the company could sell the rights to the product for an estimated $25 million. Under this option, the company would not build the $20 million production facility. The decision tree is shown in Figure 4.16. The profit projection for each outcome is shown at the end of the branches. For example, the revenue projection for the high demand outcome is $59 million.…A company has the following alternatives for investment. Using the incremental B/C method, determine which alternative should be selected. Assumei = 10%. А В C Cost new $20,000 $24,000 $16,000 Annual O&M Cost $1,000/yr $800/yr $2,200/yr Annual income $5,600/yr $5,700/yr $5,400/yr Estimated life (yr) 7 9. Note: Incremental B/C method should be used in the solution. Solutions by using other methods will not be graded.
- Hemmingway, Inc. is considering a $5 million research and development (R&D) project. Profit projections appear promising, but Hemmingway's president is concerned because the probability that the R&D project will be successful is only 0.50. Furthermore, the president knows that even if the project is successful, it will require that the company build a new production facility at a cost of $20 million in order to manufacture the product. If the facility is built, uncertainty remains about the demand and thus uncertainty about the profit that will be realized. Another option is that if the R&D project is successful, the company could sell the rights to the product for an estimated $25 million. Under this option, the company would not build the $20 million production facility. The decision tree follows. The profit projection for each outcome is shown at the end of the branches. For example, the revenue projection for the high demand outcome is $59 million. However, the cost of the R&D…A firm must decide whether to construct a small, medium, or large stamping plant. A consultant’sreport indicates a .20 probability that demand will be low and an .80 probability that demand willbe high.If the firm builds a small facility and demand turns out to be low, the net present value will be$42 million. If demand turns out to be high, the firm can either subcontract and realize the net present value of $42 million or expand greatly for a net present value of $48 million.The firm could build a medium-size facility as a hedge: If demand turns out to be low, its netpresent value is estimated at $22 million; if demand turns out to be high, the firm could do nothingand realize a net present value of $46 million, or it could expand and realize a net present value of$50 million.If the firm builds a large facility and demand is low, the net present value will be – $20 million,whereas high demand will result in a net present value of $72 million.a. Analyze this problem using a decision…Betty, the chief of nursing executive, need to make a decision about buying 340 new hospital beds for patient rooms. After she interviewed nurse managers at the units where the beds were going to be placed, Betty compiled her findings and decided to contact a well-known equipment company to obtain prices and a bid. No bids from other companies were obtained. The equipment company’s executive salesperson, Jim, discussed options at length with her and invited her and her significant other to an upcoming all-expense-paid, lavish junket at a five-star hotel in Hawaii to see demonstrations of the beds and experience a comprehensive sales program. Betty thought, “We badly need some relaxations and stress relief. Hawaii would be so much fun. Would it be wrong for us to go? If you were Betty, what would you do? Justify your answer with ethical framework: theory, approach or principle. Discuss the ethical principles at stake. What breaches are possible? Do you consider this situation a conflict…